Football · England National League North · 17/11, 20:45

Prediction: Oxford City vs Macclesfield

Team pages: Oxford City · Macclesfield

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Oxford City1.45

Macclesfield1.41

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Oxford City Draw Macclesfield

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Oxford City 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWDWLD

Macclesfield 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLDDWWLW

Head-to-head

Oxford City 1–1 Macclesfield (2 last)

Macclesfield3-0Oxford City
Oxford City2-1Macclesfield

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oxford City 1558 · Macclesfield 1538

	Oxford City	Draw	Macclesfield
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oxford City	Macclesfield
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.7	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.7	2.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:30 +10’	2.35	3.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oxford City 1–0–1 Macclesfield

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England National League North	Macclesfield	3-0 HT 0-0	Oxford City
16/08/25 England National League North	Oxford City	2-1 HT 1-0	Macclesfield

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	30	20	32
2	Hereford FC	16	9	3	4	28	14	30
3	Oxford City	15	8	4	3	27	12	28
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
5	Hednesford	16	8	3	5	30	22	27
6	Kings Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	27	21	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	32	27	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	18	14	26
9	Morecambe	16	7	3	6	25	20	24
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	AFC Telford	16	6	4	6	18	22	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	20	17	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	24	25	20
14	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	20	28	20
16	Marine	15	6	1	8	20	20	19
17	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	22	23	19
18	Brackley	16	5	4	7	18	27	19
19	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
20	Scarborough Athletic	16	4	4	8	22	25	16
21	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
22	Darlington 1883	16	3	3	10	20	29	12
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	15	30	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	14	29	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oxford City	Macclesfield
Darlington 1883	1-1 D	2-1 W
South Shields	1-3 L	4-3 W
Merthyr Town	3-0 W	1-2 L
Hebburn Town	3-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Macclesfield (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oxford City

WWLWDWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
31/10	South Shields England National League North	1-3	1-3	9	7	L
27/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	10	5	W
24/10	Marine England National League North	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
10/10	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
26/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	2-0	3-0	8	4	W
08/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
05/09	Chorley England National League North	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
31/08	Worksop England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	6	W

Macclesfield

WWWLDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Bedford Town England National League North	2-0	3-0	2	6	W
24/10	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
10/10	South Shields England National League North	2-3	4-3	3	6	W
26/09	Harborough Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
12/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	11	6	D
08/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
05/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
31/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
29/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
22/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-1	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oxford City vs Macclesfield?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oxford City win (38%). Probabilities: Oxford City 38%, draw 26%, Macclesfield 36%.

How many goals are expected in Oxford City vs Macclesfield?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Oxford City 1.45 · Macclesfield 1.41), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Oxford City vs Macclesfield?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.