Football · England National League North · 17/11, 20:45

Prediction: Bedford Town vs Chorley

Team pages: Bedford Town · Chorley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Bedford Town1.33

Chorley1.35

1X2

36% 27% 37%

Bedford Town Draw Chorley

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Bedford Town 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Chorley 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bedford Town 1–1 Chorley (2 last)

Bedford Town2-0Chorley
Chorley1-0Bedford Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bedford Town 1537 · Chorley 1468

	Bedford Town	Draw	Chorley
Our model	35%	28%	36%
Market	36%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bedford Town (rating 1537 vs 1468).
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bedford Town	Chorley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.4	1.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:08 +9’	2.45	3.40	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bedford Town 1–0–1 Chorley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England National League North	Bedford Town	2-0 HT 1-0	Chorley
22/11/25 England National League North	Chorley	1-0 HT 1-0	Bedford Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	30	20	32
2	Hereford FC	16	9	3	4	28	14	30
3	Oxford City	15	8	4	3	27	12	28
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
5	Hednesford	16	8	3	5	30	22	27
6	Kings Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	27	21	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	32	27	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	18	14	26
9	Morecambe	16	7	3	6	25	20	24
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	AFC Telford	16	6	4	6	18	22	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	20	17	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	24	25	20
14	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	20	28	20
16	Marine	15	6	1	8	20	20	19
17	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	22	23	19
18	Brackley	16	5	4	7	18	27	19
19	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
20	Scarborough Athletic	16	4	4	8	22	25	16
21	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
22	Darlington 1883	16	3	3	10	20	29	12
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	15	30	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	14	29	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bedford Town	Chorley
Hereford FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Spalding United	1-2 L	2-1 W
Radcliffe FC	1-0 W	3-0 W
AFC Telford	1-0 W	2-1 W
Spennymoor Town	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bedford Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Macclesfield England National League North	0-2	0-3	6	6	L
27/10	Hednesford England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
24/10	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
10/10	Chester England National League North	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
26/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
12/09	Spalding United England National League North	1-1	1-2	8	4	L
08/09	Worksop England National League North	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
05/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
31/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	4	W

Chorley

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
31/10	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-0	0-2	10	7	L
27/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
24/10	Buxton England National League North	1-2	2-3	4	2	L
10/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
12/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
08/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	3-0	5-2	7	6	W
05/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
31/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bedford Town vs Chorley?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chorley win (37%). Probabilities: Bedford Town 36%, draw 27%, Chorley 37%.

How many goals are expected in Bedford Town vs Chorley?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Bedford Town 1.33 · Chorley 1.35), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bedford Town vs Chorley?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.