Football · England National League North · 17/11, 20:45

Prediction: Spalding United vs Hebburn Town

Team pages: Spalding United · Hebburn Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Spalding United1.65

Hebburn Town1.43

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Spalding United Draw Hebburn Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Spalding United 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Hebburn Town 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spalding United 1496 · Hebburn Town 1452

	Spalding United	Draw	Hebburn Town
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spalding United (rating 1496 vs 1452).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spalding United	Hebburn Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	0.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/0/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:33 +7’	2.15	3.40	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	30	20	32
2	Hereford FC	16	9	3	4	28	14	30
3	Oxford City	15	8	4	3	27	12	28
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
5	Hednesford	16	8	3	5	30	22	27
6	Kings Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	27	21	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	32	27	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	18	14	26
9	Morecambe	16	7	3	6	25	20	24
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	AFC Telford	16	6	4	6	18	22	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	20	17	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	24	25	20
14	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	20	28	20
16	Marine	15	6	1	8	20	20	19
17	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	22	23	19
18	Brackley	16	5	4	7	18	27	19
19	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
20	Scarborough Athletic	16	4	4	8	22	25	16
21	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
22	Darlington 1883	16	3	3	10	20	29	12
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	15	30	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	14	29	10

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spalding United	Hebburn Town
AFC Telford	1-2 L	2-2 D
Darlington 1883	3-2 W	1-1 D
Hednesford	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hebburn Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spalding United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	AFC Telford England National League North	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
31/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	2-0	3-2	4	2	W
27/10	Brackley England National League North	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
24/10	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
10/10	Marine England National League North	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
26/09	Chorley England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
12/09	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
08/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-1	3-1	7	6	W
05/09	Southport England National League North	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
31/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	2	D

Hebburn Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
31/10	Harborough Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
24/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
17/10	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
10/10	Oxford City England National League North	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
26/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
12/09	Hednesford England National League North	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
08/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-3	1-5	5	4	L
05/09	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	0-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spalding United vs Hebburn Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spalding United win (42%). Probabilities: Spalding United 42%, draw 26%, Hebburn Town 32%.

How many goals are expected in Spalding United vs Hebburn Town?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Spalding United 1.65 · Hebburn Town 1.43), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Spalding United vs Hebburn Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.