Football · England National League North · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Morecambe vs Hereford FC

Team pages: Morecambe · Hereford FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Morecambe1.51

Hereford FC1.34

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Morecambe Draw Hereford FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Morecambe 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLWWWL

Hereford FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWLLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Morecambe 1545 · Hereford FC 1523

	Morecambe	Draw	Hereford FC
Our model	40%	27%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Morecambe	Hereford FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	2.3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:45 +14’	2.20	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	30	20	32
2	Hereford FC	15	9	2	4	26	12	29
3	Oxford City	14	8	3	3	26	11	27
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	21	11	27
5	Hednesford	16	8	3	5	30	22	27
6	Kings Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	27	21	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	32	27	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	18	14	26
9	Morecambe	15	7	2	6	23	18	23
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	17	19	22
11	AFC Telford	16	6	4	6	18	22	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	20	17	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	24	25	20
14	Worksop	15	6	2	7	20	21	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	20	28	20
16	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	22	23	19
17	Brackley	16	5	4	7	18	27	19
18	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	13	17	17
19	Scarborough Athletic	15	4	4	7	21	22	16
20	Marine	14	5	1	8	17	19	16
21	Radcliffe FC	15	5	1	9	19	27	16
22	Darlington 1883	15	3	2	10	19	28	11
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	15	30	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	14	29	10

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Morecambe	Hereford FC
Hednesford	2-6 L	0-1 L
Southport	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hereford FC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Morecambe

WWLWDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hednesford England National League North	1-3	2-6	9	0	L
31/10	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
27/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
24/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
10/10	Worksop England National League North	0-2	1-2	2	4	L
26/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	7	W
08/09	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
05/09	Buxton England National League North	0-0	4-0	4	2	W
31/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	4	W

Hereford FC

WWWWDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Chorley England National League North	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
31/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-2	0-3	9	3	L
27/10	AFC Telford England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
24/10	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	2-1	8	8	W
10/10	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
26/09	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
12/09	South Shields England National League North	3-0	6-0	3	4	W
08/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
05/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
31/08	Southport England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Morecambe vs Hereford FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Morecambe win (41%). Probabilities: Morecambe 41%, draw 26%, Hereford FC 33%.

How many goals are expected in Morecambe vs Hereford FC?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Morecambe 1.51 · Hereford FC 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Hereford FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.