Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 29/10, 02:00
Prediction: Diriangen vs Real Esteli
Team pages: Diriangen · Real Esteli
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Diriangen1.33
Real Esteli1.36
1X2
Diriangen
Draw
Real Esteli
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Diriangen
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Real Esteli
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Diriangen
2–4–0
Real Esteli
(6 last)
- Real Esteli0-2Diriangen
- Diriangen1-1Real Esteli
- Real Esteli1-1Diriangen
- Diriangen1-0Real Esteli
- Real Esteli1-1Diriangen
- Real Esteli0-0Diriangen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Diriangen 1597 · Real Esteli 1511
| Diriangen | Draw | Real Esteli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Diriangen (rating 1597 vs 1511).
- H2H favours Diriangen: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Diriangen | Real Esteli | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 4.1 | 2.6 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.6 | 4.9 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Diriangen 2–4–0 Real Esteli
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/26 Nicaragua Apertura | Real Esteli | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Diriangen |
| 17/05/26 Nicaragua Clausura | Diriangen | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Real Esteli |
| 10/05/26 Nicaragua Clausura | Real Esteli | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Diriangen |
| 12/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura | Diriangen | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Real Esteli |
| 12/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura | Real Esteli | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Diriangen |
| 26/10/25 Nicaragua Apertura | Real Esteli | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Diriangen |
Standings · Nicaragua Apertura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua FC | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 42 | 15 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangen | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 14 | 33 |
| 3 | Real Esteli | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | UNAN Managua | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 24 |
| 5 | CD Walter Ferretti | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 20 |
| 6 | HYH Export Sebaco FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 24 | 17 |
| 7 | Jalapa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 12 |
| 8 | San Marcos FC | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 12 |
| 9 | Matagalpa FC | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 29 | 10 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana FC | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 28 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Diriangen | Real Esteli |
|---|---|---|
| HYH Export Sebaco FC | 3-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Rancho Santana FC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| UNAN Managua | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| CD Walter Ferretti | 2-4 L | 1-3 L |
| San Marcos FC | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Matagalpa FC | 3-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Managua FC | 3-3 D | 2-1 W |
| Jalapa | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Diriangen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura |
1-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 19/10 | Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 15/10 | UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 11/10 | CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura |
1-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 07/10 | San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/09 | HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 07/09 | Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/09 | Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura |
2-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 30/08 | Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Real Esteli Nicaragua Apertura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Real Esteli
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 19/10 | CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Apertura |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 16/10 | Jalapa Nicaragua Apertura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Apertura |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 08/10 | UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 11/09 | Managua FC Nicaragua Apertura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Rancho Santana FC Nicaragua Apertura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 03/09 | San Marcos FC Nicaragua Apertura |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Diriangen Nicaragua Apertura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Diriangen vs Real Esteli?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Esteli win (37%). Probabilities: Diriangen 35%, draw 28%, Real Esteli 37%.
How many goals are expected in Diriangen vs Real Esteli?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Diriangen 1.33 · Real Esteli 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Diriangen vs Real Esteli?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.