Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 04/11, 22:00
Prediction: Olancho FC vs Lobos UPNFM
Team pages: Olancho FC · Lobos UPNFM
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Olancho FC1.67
Lobos UPNFM0.95
1X2
Olancho FC
Draw
Lobos UPNFM
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Olancho FC
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Lobos UPNFM
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Olancho FC
1–4–1
Lobos UPNFM
(6 last)
- Lobos UPNFM1-1Olancho FC
- Lobos UPNFM2-1Olancho FC
- Olancho FC1-1Lobos UPNFM
- Olancho FC1-1Lobos UPNFM
- Lobos UPNFM1-1Olancho FC
- Olancho FC3-2Lobos UPNFM
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Olancho FC 1490 · Lobos UPNFM 1517
| Olancho FC | Draw | Lobos UPNFM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Olancho FC | Lobos UPNFM | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.8 | 2.6 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Olancho FC 1–4–1 Lobos UPNFM
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Lobos UPNFM | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Olancho FC |
| 24/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Lobos UPNFM | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Olancho FC |
| 02/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Olancho FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Lobos UPNFM |
| 09/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Olancho FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Lobos UPNFM |
| 10/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Lobos UPNFM | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Olancho FC |
| 28/04/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Olancho FC | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Lobos UPNFM |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 29 |
| 2 | Real Espana | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 27 |
| 3 | Motagua | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | CD Marathon | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Olancho FC | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Estrella Roja | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 22 | 16 |
| 7 | Lobos UPNFM | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 15 |
| 8 | Atletico Choloma | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| 9 | Genesis de Comayagua | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 16 | 11 |
| 10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 11 |
| 11 | CD Platense | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 8 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 6 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Olancho FC | Lobos UPNFM |
|---|---|---|
| CD Platense | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Estrella Roja | 3-3 D | 2-2 D |
| CD Marathon | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Genesis de Comayagua | 0-0 D | 4-3 W |
| Real Espana | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Atletico Choloma | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Motagua | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| CD Olimpia | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Juticalpa | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 6 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Olancho FC (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Olancho FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
3-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 24/10 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/10 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 12/10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 05/09 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/08 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/08 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 17/08 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Lobos UPNFM
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 4-3 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 26/10 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 18/10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 18/09 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 07/09 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Olancho FC vs Lobos UPNFM?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Olancho FC win (54%). Probabilities: Olancho FC 54%, draw 26%, Lobos UPNFM 20%.
How many goals are expected in Olancho FC vs Lobos UPNFM?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Olancho FC 1.67 · Lobos UPNFM 0.95), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Olancho FC vs Lobos UPNFM?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.