Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: Wingate & Finchley vs Burgess Hill Town

Team pages: Wingate & Finchley · Burgess Hill Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

Wingate & Finchley2

Burgess Hill Town1.98

1X2

39% 24% 38%

Wingate & Finchley Draw Burgess Hill Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Wingate & Finchley 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLWWWD

Burgess Hill Town 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWDWLWLL

Head-to-head

Wingate & Finchley 3–3 Burgess Hill Town (6 last)

Wingate & Finchley1-2Burgess Hill Town
Burgess Hill Town3-2Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley4-2Burgess Hill Town
Burgess Hill Town0-1Wingate & Finchley
Burgess Hill Town3-1Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley2-0Burgess Hill Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wingate & Finchley 1548 · Burgess Hill Town 1514

	Wingate & Finchley	Draw	Burgess Hill Town
Our model	39%	22%	38%
Market	38%	25%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wingate & Finchley	Burgess Hill Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2	1.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.2	2.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.60

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
17:48 +2’	2.35	3.60	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wingate & Finchley 3–0–3 Burgess Hill Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	1-2 HT 0-1	Burgess Hill Town
21/02/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Burgess Hill Town	3-2	Wingate & Finchley
27/04/19 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	4-2	Burgess Hill Town
16/10/18 England Isthmian Premier Division	Burgess Hill Town	0-1 HT 0-0	Wingate & Finchley
05/04/18 England Isthmian Premier Division	Burgess Hill Town	3-1 HT 1-0	Wingate & Finchley
09/09/17 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	2-0 HT 0-0	Burgess Hill Town

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	14	11	1	2	43	16	34
2	Welling	15	11	0	4	31	15	33
3	Eastbourne Borough	13	9	1	3	25	12	28
4	Lewes	14	8	3	3	22	16	27
5	Dartford	14	8	0	6	22	21	24
6	St Albans	11	7	2	2	24	15	23
7	Ramsgate	14	7	1	6	29	19	22
8	Carshalton Ath	16	7	1	8	23	32	22
9	Chatham Town	14	7	0	7	27	23	21
10	Wingate & Finchley	13	6	3	4	26	25	21
11	Dulwich	15	6	3	6	25	26	21
12	Burgess Hill Town	14	5	5	4	24	26	20
13	Leatherhead	12	5	3	4	25	20	18
14	AFC Whyteleafe	15	5	3	7	26	27	18
15	Cheshunt	15	4	6	5	17	23	18
16	Aveley	14	5	2	7	24	24	17
17	Maldon Tiptree FC	17	5	2	10	23	39	17
18	Cray Wanderers	10	4	3	3	23	15	15
19	Brentwood Town	13	5	0	8	23	25	15
20	Three Bridges	14	2	3	9	24	39	9
21	Stanway Rovers	14	2	1	11	14	39	7
22	Whitehawk	15	1	3	11	14	37	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wingate & Finchley	Burgess Hill Town
Ramsgate	2-0 W	2-2 D
Dartford	1-2 L	2-1 W
Aveley	4-3 W	1-1 D
Welling	1-4 L	2-4 L
Enfield Town	1-4 L	0-6 L
Dulwich	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wingate & Finchley

WWLLWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
20/10	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-2	7	2	W
17/10	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
13/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
10/10	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
14/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-3	1	6	W
12/09	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
31/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-4	4	1	L
29/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W

Burgess Hill Town

WDDWDWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-6	–	–	L
27/10	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
21/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	2-2	3-2	5	3	W
17/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	2-4	3	6	L
13/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/10	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
12/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	2-1	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wingate & Finchley vs Burgess Hill Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wingate & Finchley win (39%). Probabilities: Wingate & Finchley 39%, draw 24%, Burgess Hill Town 38%.

How many goals are expected in Wingate & Finchley vs Burgess Hill Town?

The model expects 3.98 goals (Wingate & Finchley 2 · Burgess Hill Town 1.98), with a 59% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wingate & Finchley vs Burgess Hill Town?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.