Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Chatham Town vs Leatherhead

Team pages: Chatham Town · Leatherhead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Chatham Town1.86

Leatherhead1.5

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Chatham Town Draw Leatherhead

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chatham Town 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Leatherhead 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chatham Town 1493 · Leatherhead 1498

	Chatham Town	Draw	Leatherhead
Our model	45%	24%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chatham Town	Leatherhead
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	1.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:14 +9’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Welling	16	12	0	4	34	16	36
2	Enfield Town	15	11	1	3	43	18	34
3	Eastbourne Borough	15	10	1	4	27	16	31
4	Lewes	16	9	3	4	26	20	30
5	Dartford	16	10	0	6	28	23	30
6	Ramsgate	15	8	1	6	33	19	25
7	Carshalton Ath	17	8	1	8	27	34	25
8	St Albans	13	7	2	4	25	19	23
9	Chatham Town	15	7	1	7	28	24	22
10	Wingate & Finchley	15	6	4	5	28	29	22
11	Burgess Hill Town	16	5	7	4	26	28	22
12	Leatherhead	13	6	3	4	27	21	21
13	AFC Whyteleafe	16	6	3	7	28	27	21
14	Dulwich	16	6	3	7	27	29	21
15	Aveley	16	6	2	8	25	28	20
16	Maldon Tiptree FC	18	6	2	10	26	40	20
17	Cheshunt	16	4	6	6	19	27	18
18	Brentwood Town	15	5	1	9	25	28	16
19	Cray Wanderers	10	4	3	3	23	15	15
20	Three Bridges	15	2	4	9	25	40	10
21	Stanway Rovers	16	2	2	12	14	40	8
22	Whitehawk	16	1	4	11	14	37	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chatham Town	Leatherhead
Cheshunt	1-3 L	1-2 L
Welling	3-2 W	0-1 L
Dulwich	4-0 W	2-3 L
Aveley	0-1 L	2-1 W
Brentwood Town	3-0 W	2-1 W
Eastbourne Borough	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chatham Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
27/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-2	0-4	3	5	L
24/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
20/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	2-0	4-0	6	0	W
17/10	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
10/10	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/09	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
31/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-1	2	2	L

Leatherhead

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
31/10	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	7-2	–	–	W
27/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
10/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/09	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
15/09	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chatham Town vs Leatherhead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chatham Town win (45%). Probabilities: Chatham Town 45%, draw 25%, Leatherhead 30%.

How many goals are expected in Chatham Town vs Leatherhead?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Chatham Town 1.86 · Leatherhead 1.5), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chatham Town vs Leatherhead?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.