Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Whitehawk vs Welling

Team pages: Whitehawk · Welling

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Whitehawk1.06

Welling2.14

1X2

18% 21% 62%

Whitehawk Draw Welling

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Whitehawk 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLDLLD

Welling 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLWWW

Head-to-head

Whitehawk 2–4 Welling (6 last)

Welling2-0Whitehawk
Welling2-1Whitehawk
Whitehawk1-2Welling
Whitehawk2-1Welling
Welling1-0Whitehawk
Whitehawk1-0Welling

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Whitehawk 1416 · Welling 1573

	Whitehawk	Draw	Welling
Our model	17%	22%	61%
Market	18%	20%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Welling (rating 1416 vs 1573).
H2H favours Welling: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Whitehawk	Welling
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	2.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/75/25%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.8	4.8 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.50

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.82

2 (-1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:11 +11’	5.00	4.50	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Whitehawk 2–0–4 Welling

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Welling	2-0	Whitehawk
21/03/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Welling	2-1	Whitehawk
06/12/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Whitehawk	1-2 HT 0-1	Welling
14/04/18 England National League South	Whitehawk	2-1 HT 1-0	Welling
12/09/17 England National League South	Welling	1-0 HT 1-0	Whitehawk
04/03/17 England National League South	Whitehawk	1-0 HT 0-0	Welling

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Welling	16	12	0	4	34	16	36
2	Enfield Town	15	11	1	3	43	18	34
3	Eastbourne Borough	15	10	1	4	27	16	31
4	Lewes	16	9	3	4	26	20	30
5	Dartford	16	10	0	6	28	23	30
6	Ramsgate	15	8	1	6	33	19	25
7	Carshalton Ath	17	8	1	8	27	34	25
8	St Albans	13	7	2	4	25	19	23
9	Chatham Town	15	7	1	7	28	24	22
10	Wingate & Finchley	15	6	4	5	28	29	22
11	Burgess Hill Town	16	5	7	4	26	28	22
12	Leatherhead	13	6	3	4	27	21	21
13	AFC Whyteleafe	16	6	3	7	28	27	21
14	Dulwich	16	6	3	7	27	29	21
15	Aveley	16	6	2	8	25	28	20
16	Maldon Tiptree FC	18	6	2	10	26	40	20
17	Cheshunt	16	4	6	6	19	27	18
18	Brentwood Town	15	5	1	9	25	28	16
19	Cray Wanderers	10	4	3	3	23	15	15
20	Three Bridges	15	2	4	9	25	40	10
21	Stanway Rovers	16	2	2	12	14	40	8
22	Whitehawk	16	1	4	11	14	37	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Whitehawk	Welling
St Albans	1-3 L	3-1 W
Cheshunt	1-1 D	2-0 W
AFC Whyteleafe	0-5 L	1-0 W
Maldon Tiptree FC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Welling (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Whitehawk

LWLLLLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
31/10	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
27/10	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
17/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
14/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	0-2	0-5	3	4	L
10/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
03/10	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
29/09	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
15/09	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
12/09	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L

Welling

WWWWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/10	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	2-0	4-0	9	3	W
27/10	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
24/10	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
17/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	4-2	6	6	W
10/10	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/09	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	4-1	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Whitehawk vs Welling?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Welling win (62%). Probabilities: Whitehawk 18%, draw 21%, Welling 62%.

How many goals are expected in Whitehawk vs Welling?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Whitehawk 1.06 · Welling 2.14), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Whitehawk vs Welling?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.