Football · England Northern Premier League · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: Curzon Ashton vs FC United of Manchester

Team pages: Curzon Ashton · FC United of Manchester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Curzon Ashton2.03

FC United of Manchester1.3

1X2

54% 23% 23%

Curzon Ashton Draw FC United of Manchester

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Curzon Ashton 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLLWW

FC United of Manchester 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDDWDD

Head-to-head

Curzon Ashton 3–1–2 FC United of Manchester (6 last)

FC United of Manchester1-4Curzon Ashton
Curzon Ashton1-1FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester2-3Curzon Ashton
Curzon Ashton1-2FC United of Manchester
Curzon Ashton3-1FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester2-0Curzon Ashton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Curzon Ashton 1566 · FC United of Manchester 1479

	Curzon Ashton	Draw	FC United of Manchester
Our model	53%	23%	23%
Market	54%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Curzon Ashton (rating 1566 vs 1479).
H2H favours Curzon Ashton: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Curzon Ashton	FC United of Manchester
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/22/11%	57/29/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.9	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.90

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
18:44 +32’	1.67	3.90	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Curzon Ashton 3–1–2 FC United of Manchester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/10/24 England Northern League Challenge Cup	FC United of Manchester	1-4 HT 1-0	Curzon Ashton
10/10/23 England Northern League Challenge Cup	Curzon Ashton	1-1 HT 0-0	FC United of Manchester
17/09/22 England FA Cup Qualification	FC United of Manchester	2-3 HT 0-2	Curzon Ashton
03/10/20 England FA Cup Qualification	Curzon Ashton	1-2	FC United of Manchester
23/03/19 England National League North	Curzon Ashton	3-1 HT 1-1	FC United of Manchester
08/12/18 England National League North	FC United of Manchester	2-0 HT 1-0	Curzon Ashton

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	14	9	2	3	29	14	29
4	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
5	Curzon Ashton	15	9	1	5	29	18	28
6	Avro FC	15	9	1	5	37	28	28
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
10	Warrington Town	15	6	5	4	27	24	23
11	Bury	13	7	1	5	28	16	22
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
14	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
15	Emley AFC	16	4	5	7	17	28	17
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	15	3	5	7	18	20	14
19	Leek Town	15	3	5	7	30	33	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	15	2	6	7	20	26	12
22	Bamber Bridge	15	2	5	8	18	35	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Curzon Ashton	FC United of Manchester
Whitby	0-1 L	4-2 W
Redcar Athletic	3-1 W	2-3 L
Lancaster City	2-0 W	0-0 D
Warrington Town	4-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Curzon Ashton (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Curzon Ashton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
27/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
17/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
10/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
06/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
12/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	0	W
31/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
28/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
25/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-0	2	3	W

FC United of Manchester

DLLWLDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	10	2	D
24/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-2	8	2	W
13/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
10/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
12/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
31/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-4	4	2	L
29/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Curzon Ashton vs FC United of Manchester?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Curzon Ashton win (54%). Probabilities: Curzon Ashton 54%, draw 23%, FC United of Manchester 23%.

How many goals are expected in Curzon Ashton vs FC United of Manchester?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Curzon Ashton 2.03 · FC United of Manchester 1.3), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Curzon Ashton vs FC United of Manchester?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.