Football · Scotland Premiership · 07/11, 18:45

Prediction: Aberdeen vs Hibernian

Team pages: Aberdeen · Hibernian

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Aberdeen1.3

Hibernian1.19

1X2

39% 28% 34%

Aberdeen Draw Hibernian

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Aberdeen 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDLWLL

Hibernian 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDLLLD

Head-to-head

Aberdeen 2–1–3 Hibernian (6 last)

Hibernian1-1Aberdeen
Aberdeen2-0Hibernian
Hibernian2-0Aberdeen
Aberdeen1-2Hibernian
Aberdeen1-0Hibernian
Hibernian2-0Aberdeen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aberdeen 1480 · Hibernian 1481

	Aberdeen	Draw	Hibernian
Our model	38%	30%	33%
Market	39%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hibernian: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aberdeen	Hibernian
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6	1.5 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.49 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.54
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.76

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +16’	2.35	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:44 +46’	2.47	3.54	2.78
19:23 +18’	2.49▲	3.54	2.76▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aberdeen 2–1–3 Hibernian

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 Scotland Premiership	Hibernian	1-1 HT 0-1	Aberdeen
11/04/26 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	2-0 HT 1-0	Hibernian
30/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Hibernian	2-0 HT 0-0	Aberdeen
26/10/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	1-2 HT 0-1	Hibernian
26/04/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	1-0 HT 0-0	Hibernian
01/02/25 Scotland Premiership	Hibernian	2-0 HT 1-0	Aberdeen

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	12	9	1	2	27	10	28
2	Rangers	11	7	3	1	19	9	24
3	Hearts	11	6	2	3	24	17	20
4	Falkirk	12	5	3	4	15	12	18
5	Dundee	11	5	2	4	17	13	17
6	Dundee Utd	11	4	4	3	16	16	16
7	St Johnstone	12	3	5	4	15	19	14
8	St Mirren	12	4	2	6	12	20	14
9	Motherwell	12	3	3	6	14	20	12
10	Aberdeen	11	3	2	6	12	14	11
11	Kilmarnock	12	2	3	7	13	28	9
12	Hibernian	11	2	2	7	11	17	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aberdeen	Hibernian
Falkirk	0-1 L	1-2 L
Dundee Utd	2-3 L	0-1 L
St Mirren	3-1 W	1-1 D
St Johnstone	0-1 L	1-2 L
Kilmarnock	0-0 D	0-1 L
Celtic	0-3 L	1-2 L
Rangers	0-1 L	2-1 W
Dundee	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Hibernian (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aberdeen

LLLDWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
24/10	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-2	2-3	8	1	L
17/10	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
11/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	13	0	L
19/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
15/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	4-0	2	5	W
05/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
02/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-3	5	2	L
30/08	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	6	9	L
08/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	4	4	L

Hibernian

WWLLLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/10	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-2	1-2	2	5	L
17/10	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-2	1-2	6	4	L
10/10	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
19/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
15/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	15	3	L
06/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	1-2	1-2	7	1	L
03/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	1-3	7	3	L
30/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
09/08	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aberdeen vs Hibernian?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aberdeen win (39%). Probabilities: Aberdeen 39%, draw 28%, Hibernian 34%.

How many goals are expected in Aberdeen vs Hibernian?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Aberdeen 1.3 · Hibernian 1.19), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs Hibernian?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.