Football · Scotland Premiership · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: St Johnstone vs Dundee

Team pages: St Johnstone · Dundee

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

St Johnstone1.47

Dundee1.34

1X2

39% 28% 33%

St Johnstone Draw Dundee

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

St Johnstone 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWDLDD

Dundee 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWDLW

Head-to-head

St Johnstone 1–2–3 Dundee (6 last)

Dundee1-1St Johnstone
St Johnstone0-2Dundee
Dundee1-1St Johnstone
St Johnstone1-3Dundee
Dundee1-2St Johnstone
St Johnstone1-2Dundee

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Johnstone 1491 · Dundee 1511

	St Johnstone	Draw	Dundee
Our model	39%	28%	33%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dundee: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Johnstone	Dundee
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.8	2.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.25

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.84 ★
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +7’	2.45	3.25	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +19’	2.26	3.84	2.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Johnstone 1–2–3 Dundee

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	1-1 HT 0-0	St Johnstone
18/05/25 Scotland Premiership	St Johnstone	0-2 HT 0-1	Dundee
01/03/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	1-1 HT 1-1	St Johnstone
05/01/25 Scotland Premiership	St Johnstone	1-3 HT 0-3	Dundee
26/10/24 Scotland Premiership	Dundee	1-2 HT 1-0	St Johnstone
30/03/24 Scotland Premiership	St Johnstone	1-2 HT 0-1	Dundee

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	12	9	1	2	27	10	28
2	Rangers	11	7	3	1	19	9	24
3	Hearts	11	6	2	3	24	17	20
4	Falkirk	12	5	3	4	15	12	18
5	Dundee	11	5	2	4	17	13	17
6	Dundee Utd	11	4	4	3	16	16	16
7	St Johnstone	12	3	5	4	15	19	14
8	St Mirren	12	4	2	6	12	20	14
9	Motherwell	12	3	3	6	14	20	12
10	Aberdeen	11	3	2	6	12	14	11
11	Kilmarnock	12	2	3	7	13	28	9
12	Hibernian	11	2	2	7	11	17	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Johnstone	Dundee
Kilmarnock	2-2 D	3-1 W
Motherwell	2-2 D	2-1 W
Rangers	0-4 L	2-2 D
Dundee Utd	1-1 D	2-0 W
Aberdeen	1-0 W	2-0 W
Falkirk	1-1 D	2-1 W
Hibernian	2-1 W	1-2 L
Hearts	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dundee (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Johnstone

LDWLDWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-2	2-2	2	6	D
28/10	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
24/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-4	2	3	L
17/10	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
11/10	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
19/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
09/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
02/09	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
29/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	1-2	4	0	L

Dundee

WWLDLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
24/10	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
17/10	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
10/10	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	10	0	W
19/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-1	9	2	W
06/09	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
02/09	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
22/08	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
08/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Johnstone vs Dundee?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Johnstone win (39%). Probabilities: St Johnstone 39%, draw 28%, Dundee 33%.

How many goals are expected in St Johnstone vs Dundee?

The model expects 2.81 goals (St Johnstone 1.47 · Dundee 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in St Johnstone vs Dundee?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.