Prediction: Celtic vs Kilmarnock
Team pages: Celtic · Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock1-5Celtic
- Kilmarnock2-3Celtic
- Celtic4-0Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock1-2Celtic
- Celtic5-1Kilmarnock
- Celtic2-1Kilmarnock
| Celtic | Draw | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 80% | 12% | 8% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Celtic (rating 1555 vs 1427).
- H2H favours Celtic: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 15.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Celtic | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.4 / 9.8 | 2.6 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Celtic 6–0–0 Kilmarnock
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 1-5 HT 0-3 | Celtic |
| 15/02/26 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 2-3 HT 2-0 | Celtic |
| 09/11/25 Scotland Premiership | Celtic | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 14/09/25 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Celtic |
| 12/04/25 Scotland Premiership | Celtic | 5-1 HT 4-1 | Kilmarnock |
| 18/01/25 Scotland FA Cup | Celtic | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Kilmarnock |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Rangers | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Hearts | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 20 |
| 4 | Falkirk | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 18 |
| 5 | Dundee | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 15 | 17 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| 7 | St Johnstone | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 20 | 17 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 14 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 13 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 11 |
| 11 | Aberdeen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 11 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 9 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Celtic | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Falkirk | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Dundee Utd | 2-2 D | 0-4 L |
| Hibernian | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Hearts | 7-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Motherwell | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Rangers | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| St Johnstone | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| St Mirren | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Aberdeen | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Celtic (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Celtic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
0-2 | 0-2 | 14 | 4 | L |
| 28/10 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
1-2 | 2-2 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 25/10 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/10 | Hearts Scotland Premiership |
5-1 | 7-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 09/09 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
3-0 | 3-0 | 15 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
Kilmarnock
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 28/10 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 10/10 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
0-3 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Hearts Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 15/09 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 02/09 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Celtic vs Kilmarnock?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Celtic win (79%). Probabilities: Celtic 79%, draw 13%, Kilmarnock 8%.
How many goals are expected in Celtic vs Kilmarnock?
The model expects 4.09 goals (Celtic 3.05 · Kilmarnock 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Celtic vs Kilmarnock?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.