Football · Scotland Premiership · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Dundee Utd vs Motherwell

Team pages: Dundee Utd · Motherwell

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Dundee Utd1.58

Motherwell1.28

1X2

43% 26% 30%

Dundee Utd Draw Motherwell

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Dundee Utd 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWWDWD

Motherwell 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLDW

Head-to-head

Dundee Utd 1–1–4 Motherwell (6 last)

Motherwell3-0Dundee Utd
Motherwell2-0Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd0-0Motherwell
Motherwell2-0Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd1-0Motherwell
Motherwell4-3Dundee Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dundee Utd 1500 · Motherwell 1455

	Dundee Utd	Draw	Motherwell
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	44%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dundee Utd (rating 1500 vs 1455).
H2H favours Motherwell: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dundee Utd	Motherwell
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.77
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.45 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +13’	2.10	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +20’	2.03	3.77	3.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundee Utd 1–1–4 Motherwell

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	3-0 HT 1-0	Dundee Utd
28/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-0 HT 1-0	Dundee Utd
13/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	0-0 HT 0-0	Motherwell
29/10/25 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	2-0 HT 1-0	Dundee Utd
22/02/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Motherwell
14/12/24 Scotland Premiership	Motherwell	4-3 HT 3-1	Dundee Utd

Standings · Scotland Premiership

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	12	9	1	2	27	10	28
2	Rangers	11	7	3	1	19	9	24
3	Hearts	11	6	2	3	24	17	20
4	Falkirk	12	5	3	4	15	12	18
5	Dundee	11	5	2	4	17	13	17
6	Dundee Utd	11	4	4	3	16	16	16
7	St Johnstone	12	3	5	4	15	19	14
8	St Mirren	12	4	2	6	12	20	14
9	Motherwell	12	3	3	6	14	20	12
10	Aberdeen	11	3	2	6	12	14	11
11	Kilmarnock	12	2	3	7	13	28	9
12	Hibernian	11	2	2	7	11	17	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dundee Utd	Motherwell
Celtic	2-2 D	0-2 L
Aberdeen	3-2 W	0-4 L
St Johnstone	1-1 D	2-2 D
St Mirren	3-0 W	1-0 W
Kilmarnock	4-0 W	2-3 L
Dundee	0-2 L	1-2 L
Hearts	0-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Dundee Utd (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dundee Utd

LLWLDWWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Celtic Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-2	5	4	D
24/10	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	2-1	3-2	3	1	W
17/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
10/10	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	8	7	W
19/09	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	3-0	3-0	7	4	W
05/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	14	5	D
02/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
29/08	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	3-0	4-0	5	6	W
22/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
09/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-4	2	3	L

Motherwell

DWLLLLLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
28/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
25/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
17/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-3	3	1	L
11/10	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
19/09	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-2	1-2	9	2	L
15/09	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
05/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
02/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
30/08	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	2-3	3-3	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dundee Utd vs Motherwell?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dundee Utd win (43%). Probabilities: Dundee Utd 43%, draw 26%, Motherwell 30%.

How many goals are expected in Dundee Utd vs Motherwell?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Dundee Utd 1.58 · Motherwell 1.28), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dundee Utd vs Motherwell?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.