Football · Scotland Premiership · 07/11, 21:00

Prediction: St Mirren vs Rangers

Team pages: St Mirren · Rangers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

St Mirren0.9

Rangers2.08

1X2

15% 20% 65%

St Mirren Draw Rangers

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

St Mirren 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLWDL

Rangers 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWDWD

Head-to-head

St Mirren 0–2–4 Rangers (6 last)

Rangers1-0St Mirren
Rangers5-1St Mirren
St Mirren0-1Rangers
Rangers2-1St Mirren
St Mirren1-1Rangers
St Mirren2-2Rangers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Mirren 1422 · Rangers 1620

	St Mirren	Draw	Rangers
Our model	14%	22%	64%
Market	16%	18%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rangers (rating 1422 vs 1620).
H2H favours Rangers: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Mirren	Rangers
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.6	3.4 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.75

X5.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 5.75▼	Pinn 6.67 ★
X	5.50 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
2	1.33 → 1.40▲	Pinn 1.43

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +5’	7.00	5.50	1.33
22:17 +2’	5.75▼	5.00▼	1.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +22’	6.67	4.88	1.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St Mirren 0–2–4 Rangers

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/09/26 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	1-0 HT 0-0	St Mirren
16/08/26 Scotland League Cup	Rangers	5-1 HT 2-1	St Mirren
15/03/26 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	0-1 HT 0-1	Rangers
30/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Rangers	2-1 HT 1-0	St Mirren
24/08/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	1-1 HT 1-0	Rangers
26/04/25 Scotland Premiership	St Mirren	2-2 HT 1-1	Rangers

Standings · Scotland Premiership

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	12	9	1	2	27	10	28
2	Rangers	11	7	3	1	19	9	24
3	Hearts	11	6	2	3	24	17	20
4	Falkirk	12	5	3	4	15	12	18
5	Dundee	11	5	2	4	17	13	17
6	Dundee Utd	11	4	4	3	16	16	16
7	St Johnstone	12	3	5	4	15	19	14
8	St Mirren	12	4	2	6	12	20	14
9	Motherwell	12	3	3	6	14	20	12
10	Aberdeen	11	3	2	6	12	14	11
11	Kilmarnock	12	2	3	7	13	28	9
12	Hibernian	11	2	2	7	11	17	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Mirren	Rangers
Motherwell	0-1 L	1-0 W
Hibernian	1-1 D	1-2 L
Dundee	2-1 W	2-2 D
Aberdeen	1-3 L	1-0 W
Hearts	0-5 L	2-2 D
Celtic	1-2 L	1-0 W
Kilmarnock	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Rangers (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Mirren

DWLLLLLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
28/10	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/10	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
17/10	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
10/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-5	2	5	L
19/09	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-3	4	4	L
09/09	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
05/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
02/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
30/08	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	3-2	3-3	7	4	D

Rangers

LWWWWWWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
24/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	1-0	4-0	12	3	W
17/10	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
10/10	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	3-0	3-1	7	2	W
20/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
09/09	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
05/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
02/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
30/08	Aberdeen Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
09/08	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Mirren vs Rangers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rangers win (65%). Probabilities: St Mirren 15%, draw 20%, Rangers 65%.

How many goals are expected in St Mirren vs Rangers?

The model expects 2.98 goals (St Mirren 0.9 · Rangers 2.08), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in St Mirren vs Rangers?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.