Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Lewes vs Stanway Rovers

Team pages: Lewes · Stanway Rovers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Lewes2.09

Stanway Rovers1.22

1X2

57% 22% 21%

Lewes Draw Stanway Rovers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Lewes 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDDLWL

Stanway Rovers 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWLLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lewes 1504 · Stanway Rovers 1428

	Lewes	Draw	Stanway Rovers
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lewes (rating 1504 vs 1428).
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lewes	Stanway Rovers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.8	4.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:32 +36’	1.57	4.10	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	16	12	1	3	45	18	37
2	Welling	17	12	1	4	36	18	37
3	Eastbourne Borough	16	11	1	4	31	18	34
4	Dartford	16	10	0	6	28	23	30
5	Lewes	17	9	3	5	26	22	30
6	Ramsgate	15	8	1	6	33	19	25
7	Carshalton Ath	17	8	1	8	27	34	25
8	Leatherhead	14	7	3	4	28	21	24
9	St Albans	13	7	2	4	25	19	23
10	Chatham Town	16	7	1	8	28	25	22
11	Wingate & Finchley	15	6	4	5	28	29	22
12	Burgess Hill Town	16	5	7	4	26	28	22
13	AFC Whyteleafe	16	6	3	7	28	27	21
14	Dulwich	17	6	3	8	29	33	21
15	Aveley	16	6	2	8	25	28	20
16	Maldon Tiptree FC	18	6	2	10	26	40	20
17	Cray Wanderers	11	5	3	3	25	15	18
18	Cheshunt	16	4	6	6	19	27	18
19	Brentwood Town	15	5	1	9	25	28	16
20	Three Bridges	16	2	4	10	25	42	10
21	Whitehawk	17	1	5	11	16	39	8
22	Stanway Rovers	16	2	2	12	14	40	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lewes	Stanway Rovers
Enfield Town	0-2 L	1-2 L
Wingate & Finchley	2-2 D	1-4 L
Three Bridges	2-1 W	1-3 L
Whitehawk	1-0 W	0-0 D
Cheshunt	1-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Lewes (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lewes

WLWWWDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
07/11	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
03/11	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-2	1-2	6	1	L
31/10	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
17/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-1	10	4	D
13/10	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
03/10	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
19/09	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
15/09	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W

Stanway Rovers

LWLLLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/11	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
31/10	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-7	–	–	L
24/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
20/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
10/10	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
15/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	3-1	3-2	4	2	W
12/09	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lewes vs Stanway Rovers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lewes win (57%). Probabilities: Lewes 57%, draw 22%, Stanway Rovers 21%.

How many goals are expected in Lewes vs Stanway Rovers?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Lewes 2.09 · Stanway Rovers 1.22), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lewes vs Stanway Rovers?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.