Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 17/11, 20:45

Prediction: Leatherhead vs Wingate & Finchley

Team pages: Leatherhead · Wingate & Finchley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

Leatherhead2.32

Wingate & Finchley1.63

1X2

52% 22% 26%

Leatherhead Draw Wingate & Finchley

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Leatherhead 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Wingate & Finchley 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Leatherhead 2–1–3 Wingate & Finchley (6 last)

Wingate & Finchley1-1Leatherhead
Leatherhead1-2Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley1-2Leatherhead
Leatherhead2-1Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley1-0Leatherhead
Wingate & Finchley3-1Leatherhead

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leatherhead 1519 · Wingate & Finchley 1509

	Leatherhead	Draw	Wingate & Finchley
Our model	53%	21%	26%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Wingate & Finchley: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leatherhead	Wingate & Finchley
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	2.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	25/38/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.5	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +9’	1.73	4.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Leatherhead 2–1–3 Wingate & Finchley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/22 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	1-1	Leatherhead
21/08/21 England Isthmian Premier Division	Leatherhead	1-2	Wingate & Finchley
07/01/20 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	1-2 HT 1-0	Leatherhead
02/02/19 England Isthmian Premier Division	Leatherhead	2-1	Wingate & Finchley
13/10/18 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	1-0	Leatherhead
03/02/18 England Isthmian Premier Division	Wingate & Finchley	3-1	Leatherhead

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Welling	18	13	1	4	40	18	40
2	Enfield Town	16	12	1	3	45	18	37
3	Eastbourne Borough	16	11	1	4	31	18	34
4	Lewes	18	9	4	5	26	22	31
5	Dartford	16	10	0	6	28	23	30
6	Ramsgate	16	9	1	6	36	19	28
7	Leatherhead	15	7	4	4	30	23	25
8	Carshalton Ath	17	8	1	8	27	34	25
9	St Albans	14	7	3	4	27	21	24
10	AFC Whyteleafe	17	7	3	7	30	27	24
11	Chatham Town	17	7	1	9	28	27	22
12	Wingate & Finchley	15	6	4	5	28	29	22
13	Burgess Hill Town	16	5	7	4	26	28	22
14	Dulwich	17	6	3	8	29	33	21
15	Aveley	16	6	2	8	25	28	20
16	Maldon Tiptree FC	18	6	2	10	26	40	20
17	Cray Wanderers	11	5	3	3	25	15	18
18	Cheshunt	16	4	6	6	19	27	18
19	Brentwood Town	16	5	1	10	25	31	16
20	Three Bridges	17	2	4	11	25	46	10
21	Stanway Rovers	17	2	3	12	14	40	9
22	Whitehawk	17	1	5	11	16	39	8

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leatherhead	Wingate & Finchley
Stanway Rovers	7-2 W	4-1 W
Welling	0-1 L	1-4 L
Aveley	2-1 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Leatherhead (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leatherhead

LWDDLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
10/11	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
03/11	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
31/10	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	7-2	–	–	W
27/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
10/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/09	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
15/09	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L

Wingate & Finchley

LLWLWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-3	3	7	L
03/11	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/10	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
20/10	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-2	7	2	W
17/10	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
13/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
10/10	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
14/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-3	1	6	W
12/09	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
31/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-4	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leatherhead vs Wingate & Finchley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leatherhead win (52%). Probabilities: Leatherhead 52%, draw 22%, Wingate & Finchley 26%.

How many goals are expected in Leatherhead vs Wingate & Finchley?

The model expects 3.94 goals (Leatherhead 2.32 · Wingate & Finchley 1.63), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Leatherhead vs Wingate & Finchley?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.