Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Welling vs Three Bridges

Team pages: Welling · Three Bridges

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Welling2.52

Three Bridges1.15

1X2

67% 19% 15%

Welling Draw Three Bridges

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Welling 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWWWD

Three Bridges 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWLDLLDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Welling 1563 · Three Bridges 1433

	Welling	Draw	Three Bridges
Our model	66%	19%	15%
Market	67%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Welling (rating 1563 vs 1433).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Welling	Three Bridges
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.4 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 7	0 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +10’	1.33	4.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	16	12	1	3	45	18	37
2	Welling	17	12	1	4	36	18	37
3	Eastbourne Borough	16	11	1	4	31	18	34
4	Dartford	16	10	0	6	28	23	30
5	Lewes	17	9	3	5	26	22	30
6	Ramsgate	15	8	1	6	33	19	25
7	Carshalton Ath	17	8	1	8	27	34	25
8	Leatherhead	14	7	3	4	28	21	24
9	St Albans	13	7	2	4	25	19	23
10	Chatham Town	16	7	1	8	28	25	22
11	Wingate & Finchley	15	6	4	5	28	29	22
12	Burgess Hill Town	16	5	7	4	26	28	22
13	AFC Whyteleafe	16	6	3	7	28	27	21
14	Dulwich	17	6	3	8	29	33	21
15	Aveley	16	6	2	8	25	28	20
16	Maldon Tiptree FC	18	6	2	10	26	40	20
17	Cray Wanderers	11	5	3	3	25	15	18
18	Cheshunt	16	4	6	6	19	27	18
19	Brentwood Town	15	5	1	9	25	28	16
20	Three Bridges	16	2	4	10	25	42	10
21	Whitehawk	17	1	5	11	16	39	8
22	Stanway Rovers	16	2	2	12	14	40	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Welling	Three Bridges
Whitehawk	2-2 D	2-3 L
St Albans	3-1 W	0-4 L
Leatherhead	1-0 W	3-3 D
Eastbourne Borough	0-1 L	0-2 L
Maldon Tiptree FC	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Welling (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Welling

WWWLWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-2	8	0	D
07/11	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/10	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	2-0	4-0	9	3	W
27/10	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
24/10	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
17/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	4-2	6	6	W
10/10	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/09	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W

Three Bridges

LLDWLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
07/11	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/10	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
13/10	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/09	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
15/09	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/09	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Welling vs Three Bridges?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Welling win (67%). Probabilities: Welling 67%, draw 19%, Three Bridges 15%.

How many goals are expected in Welling vs Three Bridges?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Welling 2.52 · Three Bridges 1.15), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Welling vs Three Bridges?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.