Football · Hong Kong 2nd Division · 25/10, 06:30

Prediction: Yau Tsim Mong vs Wing Yee

Team pages: Yau Tsim Mong · Wing Yee

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Yau Tsim Mong1.71

Wing Yee1.97

1X2

34% 22% 44%

Yau Tsim Mong Draw Wing Yee

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Yau Tsim Mong 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDDLL

Wing Yee 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDLLDW

Head-to-head

Yau Tsim Mong 1–3 Wing Yee (4 last)

Wing Yee5-3Yau Tsim Mong
Yau Tsim Mong1-3Wing Yee
Wing Yee1-2Yau Tsim Mong
Yau Tsim Mong1-6Wing Yee

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yau Tsim Mong 1425 · Wing Yee 1478

	Yau Tsim Mong	Draw	Wing Yee
Our model	33%	23%	44%
Market	34%	21%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wing Yee (rating 1425 vs 1478).
H2H favours Wing Yee: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yau Tsim Mong	Wing Yee
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.7	1.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X4.33

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:45 +21’	2.63	4.33	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Yau Tsim Mong 1–0–3 Wing Yee

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Wing Yee	5-3 HT 1-1	Yau Tsim Mong
28/09/25 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Yau Tsim Mong	1-3 HT 0-2	Wing Yee
23/04/17 Hong Kong 1st Division	Wing Yee	1-2 HT 1-2	Yau Tsim Mong
30/10/16 Hong Kong 1st Division	Yau Tsim Mong	1-6 HT 1-2	Wing Yee

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yau Tsim Mong	Wing Yee
Sui Tung	2-2 D	0-2 L
GFC Friends	2-2 D	2-4 L
Tuen Mun SA	1-2 L	4-1 W
Kwai Tsing DFA	0-1 L	0-3 L
Wanchai	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Yau Tsim Mong (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yau Tsim Mong

LLWLLLDDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-4	2-6	5	4	L
11/10	Wong Tai Sin Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	1-2	11	3	L
27/09	Sui Tung Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	2-2	2	2	D
20/09	GFC Friends Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
13/09	Tsun Tat Kwok Keung Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	0-3	5	0	L
06/09	Tuen Mun SA Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
10/05	Kwai Tsing DFA Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
26/04	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
12/04	Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	3-5	0	2	L
22/03	GFC Friends Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	1-4	13	3	L

Wing Yee

LWLLWDLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Tuen Mun SA Hong Kong 2nd Division	3-0	4-1	2	5	W
11/10	Double Flower Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	2-2	3	8	D
27/09	Sun Hei Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-3	1-4	5	3	L
20/09	Kwai Tsing DFA Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
13/09	Wing Go Fu Moon Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
06/09	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
10/05	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-2	2-4	5	4	L
26/04	GFC Friends Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-2	2-4	5	7	L
12/04	Yau Tsim Mong Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	5-3	5	2	W
22/03	Sui Tung Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	0-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yau Tsim Mong vs Wing Yee?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wing Yee win (44%). Probabilities: Yau Tsim Mong 34%, draw 22%, Wing Yee 44%.

How many goals are expected in Yau Tsim Mong vs Wing Yee?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Yau Tsim Mong 1.71 · Wing Yee 1.97), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Yau Tsim Mong vs Wing Yee?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.