Football · Hong Kong 2nd Division · 01/11, 08:30

Prediction: Tuen Mun SA vs P.B Alliance

Team pages: Tuen Mun SA · P.B Alliance

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Tuen Mun SA0.87

P.B Alliance2.87

1X2

7% 13% 81%

Tuen Mun SA Draw P.B Alliance

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tuen Mun SA 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLW

P.B Alliance 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWDWWD

Head-to-head

Tuen Mun SA 4–1–1 P.B Alliance (6 last)

P.B Alliance1-2Tuen Mun SA
P.B Alliance1-5Tuen Mun SA
Tuen Mun SA1-1P.B Alliance
P.B Alliance0-3Tuen Mun SA
Tuen Mun SA1-2P.B Alliance
P.B Alliance0-3Tuen Mun SA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tuen Mun SA 1421 · P.B Alliance 1552

	Tuen Mun SA	Draw	P.B Alliance
Our model	8%	14%	78%
Market	5%	12%	83%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours P.B Alliance (rating 1421 vs 1552).
H2H favours Tuen Mun SA: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tuen Mun SA	P.B Alliance
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	3.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

117.00

X8.00

21.11

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.75)1.85

2 (-2.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	1.11 → 1.11	Bet365 1.11

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:13 +17’	17.00	8.00	1.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tuen Mun SA 4–1–1 P.B Alliance

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/24 Hong Kong 2nd Division	P.B Alliance	1-2 HT 0-0	Tuen Mun SA
24/03/24 Hong Kong FA Cup Junior Division	P.B Alliance	1-5 HT 1-2	Tuen Mun SA
12/11/23 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Tuen Mun SA	1-1 HT 1-0	P.B Alliance
02/04/23 Hong Kong 2nd Division	P.B Alliance	0-3 HT 0-2	Tuen Mun SA
18/12/22 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Tuen Mun SA	1-2 HT 1-1	P.B Alliance
24/10/21 Hong Kong 2nd Division	P.B Alliance	0-3 HT 0-1	Tuen Mun SA

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tuen Mun SA	P.B Alliance
Tsuen Wan	3-2 W	1-5 L
Wong Tai Sin	1-3 L	1-3 L
Fukien	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tuen Mun SA

LLLLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
18/10	Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-3	1-4	1	5	L
11/10	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	1-3	8	5	L
27/09	Wong Tai Sin Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	1-3	4	4	L
13/09	GFC Friends Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
06/09	Yau Tsim Mong Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
26/04	Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
08/02	Fukien Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
04/01	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
21/12	Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-2	7	4	L

P.B Alliance

LLWLWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Double Flower Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
18/10	Sun Hei Hong Kong 2nd Division	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
11/10	Kwai Tsing DFA Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	4-0	6	4	W
27/09	Wing Go Fu Moon Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
20/09	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	3-0	13	1	W
13/09	Kowloon Cricket Club Hong Kong 2nd Division	2-1	4-1	10	0	W
31/05	Kowloon Cricket Club Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	0-5	5	2	L
17/05	Fukien Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/04	Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-3	1-5	6	2	L
08/03	Wong Tai Sin Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-3	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tuen Mun SA vs P.B Alliance?

According to our model, the most likely result is an P.B Alliance win (81%). Probabilities: Tuen Mun SA 7%, draw 13%, P.B Alliance 81%.

How many goals are expected in Tuen Mun SA vs P.B Alliance?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Tuen Mun SA 0.87 · P.B Alliance 2.87), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tuen Mun SA vs P.B Alliance?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.