Football · Iraq Stars League · 29/10, 16:30

Prediction: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Minaa

Team pages: Al Quwa Al Jawiya · Al Minaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1.45

Al Minaa0.89

1X2

49% 29% 22%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Draw Al Minaa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLWLDWDL

Al Minaa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLDWLW

Head-to-head

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 5–1–0 Al Minaa (6 last)

Al Minaa0-2Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1-0Al Minaa
Al Minaa2-2Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2-1Al Minaa
Al Quwa Al Jawiya4-2Al Minaa
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2-1Al Minaa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1495 · Al Minaa 1482

	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	Draw	Al Minaa
Our model	49%	29%	22%
Market	49%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Quwa Al Jawiya: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	Al Minaa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.20

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.83▲	Bet365 1.83
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.33 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
05:57 +7’	1.75	3.20	4.33
07:54 +12’	1.83▲	3.20	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 5–1–0 Al Minaa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Minaa	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
27/09/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Minaa
08/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Minaa	2-2 HT 2-1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
27/09/24 Iraq League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2-1 HT 0-1	Al Minaa
10/02/24 Iraq League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4-2 HT 2-1	Al Minaa
09/03/22 Iraq League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2-1 HT 0-1	Al Minaa

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	11	7	3	1	18	9	24
2	Al Naft SC	11	6	4	1	13	5	22
3	Al Shorta SC	11	5	5	1	12	5	20
4	Newroz SC	11	5	4	2	13	5	19
5	Erbil SC	11	5	3	3	14	7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	5	3	3	15	9	18
7	Al Jolan SC	11	4	5	2	12	10	17
8	Al Talaba	11	4	5	2	12	11	17
9	Duhok	11	3	6	2	19	15	15
10	Al Minaa	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	11	3	5	3	6	7	14
12	Diyala FC	11	3	4	4	15	16	13
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	2	6	3	14	13	12
14	Mosul FC	11	3	3	5	11	16	12
15	Zakho	11	3	3	5	9	15	12
16	Al Gharraf	11	2	4	5	6	13	10
17	Al Karkh	11	2	3	6	14	19	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	1	5	5	7	13	8
19	Naft Maysan	11	1	5	5	7	15	8
20	Karbalaa FC	11	1	3	7	9	22	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	Al Minaa
Al Karma	0-0 D	2-1 W
Duhok	1-2 L	1-1 D
Naft Maysan	1-1 D	1-1 D
Ghaz Al Shamal	1-1 D	2-0 W
Erbil SC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Minaa (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

DDDLWLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
17/10	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
07/10	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
19/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
10/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
07/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-2	5	3	W
03/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
29/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
25/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
21/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D

Al Minaa

WWLLDLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/10	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	9	1	L
10/10	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
18/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
13/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
09/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
05/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-3	0-3	5	5	L
31/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	11	4	L
26/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
20/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Minaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Quwa Al Jawiya win (49%). Probabilities: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 49%, draw 29%, Al Minaa 22%.

How many goals are expected in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Minaa?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.45 · Al Minaa 0.89), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Minaa?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.