Football · Iraq Stars League · 30/10, 15:45

Prediction: Karbalaa FC vs Al Talaba

Team pages: Karbalaa FC · Al Talaba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Karbalaa FC0.87

Al Talaba1.61

1X2

20% 26% 54%

Karbalaa FC Draw Al Talaba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Karbalaa FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLDLL

Al Talaba 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDWLDDWW

Head-to-head

Karbalaa FC 0–1–2 Al Talaba (3 last)

Al Talaba2-0Karbalaa FC
Karbalaa FC0-2Al Talaba
Al Talaba0-0Karbalaa FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karbalaa FC 1421 · Al Talaba 1528

	Karbalaa FC	Draw	Al Talaba
Our model	19%	27%	54%
Market	20%	26%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Talaba (rating 1421 vs 1528).
H2H favours Al Talaba: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karbalaa FC	Al Talaba
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.1	2.1 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.50

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:04 +3’	4.50	3.50	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Karbalaa FC 0–1–2 Al Talaba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	2-0 HT 1-0	Karbalaa FC
29/01/25 Iraq Stars League	Karbalaa FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Talaba
20/12/23 Iraq League	Al Talaba	0-0 HT 0-0	Karbalaa FC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	11	7	3	1	18	9	24
2	Al Naft SC	11	6	4	1	13	5	22
3	Al Shorta SC	11	5	5	1	12	5	20
4	Newroz SC	11	5	4	2	13	5	19
5	Erbil SC	11	5	3	3	14	7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	5	3	3	15	9	18
7	Al Jolan SC	11	4	5	2	12	10	17
8	Al Talaba	11	4	5	2	12	11	17
9	Duhok	11	3	6	2	19	15	15
10	Al Minaa	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	11	3	5	3	6	7	14
12	Diyala FC	11	3	4	4	15	16	13
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	2	6	3	14	13	12
14	Mosul FC	11	3	3	5	11	16	12
15	Zakho	11	3	3	5	9	15	12
16	Al Gharraf	11	2	4	5	6	13	10
17	Al Karkh	11	2	3	6	14	19	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	1	5	5	7	13	8
19	Naft Maysan	11	1	5	5	7	15	8
20	Karbalaa FC	11	1	3	7	9	22	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karbalaa FC	Al Talaba
Duhok	2-5 L	3-3 D
Al Kahrabaa	0-0 D	1-0 W
Al Naft SC	1-2 L	0-0 D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2-3 L	1-0 W
Al Karkh	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Talaba (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Karbalaa FC

DLLWLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-5	3	3	L
16/10	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
10/10	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
14/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
07/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-3	2	3	L
04/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
30/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
26/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-3	8	4	L
21/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	10	D

Al Talaba

DWDDWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
16/10	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
08/10	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
18/09	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
13/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
09/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-2	3-2	2	2	W
05/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
31/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
26/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
22/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-3	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karbalaa FC vs Al Talaba?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Talaba win (54%). Probabilities: Karbalaa FC 20%, draw 26%, Al Talaba 54%.

How many goals are expected in Karbalaa FC vs Al Talaba?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Karbalaa FC 0.87 · Al Talaba 1.61), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Karbalaa FC vs Al Talaba?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.