Football · Iraq Stars League · 31/10, 17:00

Prediction: Al Karkh vs Al Gharraf

Team pages: Al Karkh · Al Gharraf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Al Karkh1.31

Al Gharraf1.06

1X2

41% 30% 29%

Al Karkh Draw Al Gharraf

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Karkh 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWWLDD

Al Gharraf 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLLDWD

Head-to-head

Al Karkh 1–1–0 Al Gharraf (2 last)

Al Gharraf2-2Al Karkh
Al Karkh1-0Al Gharraf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Karkh 1481 · Al Gharraf 1450

	Al Karkh	Draw	Al Gharraf
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Karkh	Al Gharraf
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	0.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.7	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
06:53 +23’	2.20	3.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Karkh 1–1–0 Al Gharraf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Gharraf	2-2 HT 1-0	Al Karkh
22/12/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Gharraf

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	11	7	3	1	18	9	24
2	Al Naft SC	11	6	4	1	13	5	22
3	Al Shorta SC	11	5	5	1	12	5	20
4	Newroz SC	11	5	4	2	13	5	19
5	Erbil SC	11	5	3	3	14	7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	5	3	3	15	9	18
7	Al Jolan SC	11	4	5	2	12	10	17
8	Al Talaba	11	4	5	2	12	11	17
9	Duhok	11	3	6	2	19	15	15
10	Al Minaa	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	11	3	5	3	6	7	14
12	Diyala FC	11	3	4	4	15	16	13
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	2	6	3	14	13	12
14	Mosul FC	11	3	3	5	11	16	12
15	Zakho	11	3	3	5	9	15	12
16	Al Gharraf	11	2	4	5	6	13	10
17	Al Karkh	11	2	3	6	14	19	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	1	5	5	7	13	8
19	Naft Maysan	11	1	5	5	7	15	8
20	Karbalaa FC	11	1	3	7	9	22	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Karkh	Al Gharraf
Al Shorta SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Karbalaa FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Al Kahrabaa	2-2 D	0-0 D
Al Jolan SC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Gharraf (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Karkh

LLDLLWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
18/10	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
10/10	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	2-3	5	2	L
17/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-2	3	6	W
09/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	2-1	2-3	3	2	L
04/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
29/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	2-2	2	5	D
25/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
20/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L

Al Gharraf

WLLDLLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
16/10	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
09/10	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
17/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	4	0	L
12/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-3	7	1	L
08/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
03/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
30/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
22/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Karkh vs Al Gharraf?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Karkh win (41%). Probabilities: Al Karkh 41%, draw 30%, Al Gharraf 29%.

How many goals are expected in Al Karkh vs Al Gharraf?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Al Karkh 1.31 · Al Gharraf 1.06), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Karkh vs Al Gharraf?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.