Football · Iraq Stars League · 29/10, 14:00

Prediction: Mosul FC vs Al Jolan SC

Team pages: Mosul FC · Al Jolan SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Mosul FC1.21

Al Jolan SC1.09

1X2

38% 30% 32%

Mosul FC Draw Al Jolan SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Mosul FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLLLWD

Al Jolan SC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWDLDDWW

Head-to-head

Mosul FC 0–1–0 Al Jolan SC (1 last)

Al Jolan SC1-1Mosul FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mosul FC 1468 · Al Jolan SC 1518

	Mosul FC	Draw	Al Jolan SC
Our model	38%	31%	31%
Market	38%	30%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Jolan SC (rating 1468 vs 1518).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mosul FC	Al Jolan SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	1.1 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.00

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.08

2 (+0.25)1.73

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:02 +3’	2.35	3.00	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mosul FC 0–1–0 Al Jolan SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/12/24 Iraq Cup	Al Jolan SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Mosul FC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	11	7	3	1	18	9	24
2	Al Naft SC	11	6	4	1	13	5	22
3	Al Shorta SC	11	5	5	1	12	5	20
4	Newroz SC	11	5	4	2	13	5	19
5	Erbil SC	11	5	3	3	14	7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	5	3	3	15	9	18
7	Al Jolan SC	11	4	5	2	12	10	17
8	Al Talaba	11	4	5	2	12	11	17
9	Duhok	11	3	6	2	19	15	15
10	Al Minaa	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	11	3	5	3	6	7	14
12	Diyala FC	11	3	4	4	15	16	13
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	2	6	3	14	13	12
14	Mosul FC	11	3	3	5	11	16	12
15	Zakho	11	3	3	5	9	15	12
16	Al Gharraf	11	2	4	5	6	13	10
17	Al Karkh	11	2	3	6	14	19	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	1	5	5	7	13	8
19	Naft Maysan	11	1	5	5	7	15	8
20	Karbalaa FC	11	1	3	7	9	22	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mosul FC	Al Jolan SC
Al Karkh	1-1 D	1-0 W
Zakho	1-2 L	1-1 D
Newroz SC	0-3 L	0-2 L
Al Shorta SC	0-2 L	0-1 L
Diyala FC	2-1 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Al Jolan SC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mosul FC

WWLDLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
18/10	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	1	9	W
07/10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
18/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
13/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
09/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
03/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
30/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
26/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	4	7	W

Al Jolan SC

WLDWDLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	1	6	W
17/10	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
09/10	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
18/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	1-2	2-2	0	3	D
14/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
09/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
04/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
29/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	3-1	3-3	2	7	D
25/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
20/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mosul FC vs Al Jolan SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mosul FC win (38%). Probabilities: Mosul FC 38%, draw 30%, Al Jolan SC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Mosul FC vs Al Jolan SC?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Mosul FC 1.21 · Al Jolan SC 1.09), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Mosul FC vs Al Jolan SC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.