Football · Iraq Stars League · 30/10, 15:00

Prediction: Al Karma vs Duhok

Team pages: Al Karma · Duhok

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Al Karma1.84

Duhok1.05

1X2

55% 25% 20%

Al Karma Draw Duhok

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Karma 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWWDL

Duhok 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWDLDWLW

Head-to-head

Al Karma 3–1 Duhok (4 last)

Al Karma3-0Duhok
Duhok0-1Al Karma
Al Karma1-0Duhok
Duhok3-1Al Karma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Karma 1574 · Duhok 1503

	Al Karma	Draw	Duhok
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Karma (rating 1574 vs 1503).
H2H favours Al Karma: 3-0-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Karma	Duhok
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.9	3.2 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.6	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:02 +4’	1.65	3.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Karma 3–0–1 Duhok

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	3-0 HT 2-0	Duhok
14/09/25 Iraq Stars League	Duhok	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Karma
21/06/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	1-0 HT 0-0	Duhok
29/01/25 Iraq Stars League	Duhok	3-1 HT 2-1	Al Karma

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	11	7	3	1	18	9	24
2	Al Naft SC	11	6	4	1	13	5	22
3	Al Shorta SC	11	5	5	1	12	5	20
4	Newroz SC	11	5	4	2	13	5	19
5	Erbil SC	11	5	3	3	14	7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	5	3	3	15	9	18
7	Al Jolan SC	11	4	5	2	12	10	17
8	Al Talaba	11	4	5	2	12	11	17
9	Duhok	11	3	6	2	19	15	15
10	Al Minaa	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	11	3	5	3	6	7	14
12	Diyala FC	11	3	4	4	15	16	13
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	2	6	3	14	13	12
14	Mosul FC	11	3	3	5	11	16	12
15	Zakho	11	3	3	5	9	15	12
16	Al Gharraf	11	2	4	5	6	13	10
17	Al Karkh	11	2	3	6	14	19	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	1	5	5	7	13	8
19	Naft Maysan	11	1	5	5	7	15	8
20	Karbalaa FC	11	1	3	7	9	22	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Karma	Duhok
Al Minaa	1-2 L	1-1 D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	0-0 D	2-1 W
Al Karkh	3-2 W	2-3 L
Al Naft SC	3-0 W	1-1 D
Karbalaa FC	2-0 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Duhok (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Karma

WDWWWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
17/10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
10/10	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
19/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
14/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	6	9	W
09/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
26/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
21/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W

Duhok

DDDWDLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	5-2	10	3	W
17/10	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	15	4	L
08/10	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	6	7	W
18/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
13/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
08/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	5	8	W
30/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
26/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
22/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	2-3	3-3	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Karma vs Duhok?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Karma win (55%). Probabilities: Al Karma 55%, draw 25%, Duhok 20%.

How many goals are expected in Al Karma vs Duhok?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Al Karma 1.84 · Duhok 1.05), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Karma vs Duhok?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.