Football · Iraq Stars League · 05/11, 14:45

Prediction: Diyala FC vs Al Minaa

Team pages: Diyala FC · Al Minaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

Diyala FC1.22

Al Minaa1.23

1X2

35% 30% 35%

Diyala FC Draw Al Minaa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Diyala FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLWDLWDL

Al Minaa 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDWLWD

Head-to-head

Diyala FC 0–2–1 Al Minaa (3 last)

Al Minaa1-1Diyala FC
Al Minaa3-0Diyala FC
Diyala FC1-1Al Minaa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Diyala FC 1487 · Al Minaa 1488

	Diyala FC	Draw	Al Minaa
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Diyala FC	Al Minaa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.6	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.00

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +6’	2.60	3.00	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Diyala FC 0–2–1 Al Minaa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Minaa	1-1 HT 0-1	Diyala FC
02/07/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Minaa	3-0 HT 1-0	Diyala FC
07/11/24 Iraq League	Diyala FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Al Minaa

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	12	8	3	1	19	9	27
2	Al Naft SC	12	7	4	1	14	5	25
3	Al Zawra'a	12	6	3	3	17	9	21
4	Al Shorta SC	12	5	6	1	13	6	21
5	Newroz SC	12	5	5	2	14	6	20
6	Al Jolan SC	12	5	5	2	16	12	20
7	Erbil SC	12	5	4	3	15	8	19
8	Al Talaba	12	4	6	2	14	13	18
9	Al Minaa	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
10	Duhok	12	3	6	3	19	16	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	12	3	6	3	7	8	15
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	12	2	7	3	14	13	13
13	Diyala FC	12	3	4	5	15	18	13
14	Zakho	12	3	4	5	9	15	13
15	Al Gharraf	12	3	4	5	8	14	13
16	Mosul FC	12	3	3	6	13	20	12
17	Al Karkh	12	2	3	7	15	21	9
18	Naft Maysan	12	1	6	5	7	15	9
19	Al Kahrabaa	12	1	5	6	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	12	1	4	7	11	24	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Diyala FC	Al Minaa
Newroz SC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Naft Maysan	2-0 W	1-1 D
Al Naft SC	0-2 L	0-3 L
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-1 D	0-0 D
Al Gharraf	3-1 W	3-0 W
Erbil SC	0-2 L	0-2 L
Al Karma	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Diyala FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Diyala FC

DDLLWDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
24/10	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
16/10	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
09/10	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
19/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-1	1	1	W
08/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
03/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-3	3-3	6	7	D
25/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	1	2	D

Al Minaa

WLLDLDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
24/10	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/10	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	9	1	L
10/10	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
18/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
13/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
09/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
05/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-3	0-3	5	5	L
31/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	11	4	L
26/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Diyala FC vs Al Minaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Diyala FC win (35%). Probabilities: Diyala FC 35%, draw 30%, Al Minaa 35%.

How many goals are expected in Diyala FC vs Al Minaa?

The model expects 2.45 goals (Diyala FC 1.22 · Al Minaa 1.23), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Diyala FC vs Al Minaa?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.