Football · Iraq Stars League · 05/11, 16:30

Prediction: Mosul FC vs Duhok

Team pages: Mosul FC · Duhok

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Mosul FC1.32

Duhok1.36

1X2

35% 29% 36%

Mosul FC Draw Duhok

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mosul FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLLWDL

Duhok 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDLDWLWL

Head-to-head

Mosul FC 0–2–0 Duhok (2 last)

Mosul FC3-3Duhok
Duhok0-0Mosul FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mosul FC 1446 · Duhok 1504

	Mosul FC	Draw	Duhok
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Duhok (rating 1446 vs 1504).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mosul FC	Duhok
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.1	3.1 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 2.63▼	Bet365 2.63
X	3.10 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
2	2.15 → 2.50▲	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +3’	3.10	3.10	2.15
13:55 +13’	2.63▼	3.00▼	2.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mosul FC 0–2–0 Duhok

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Mosul FC	3-3 HT 1-0	Duhok
13/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Duhok	0-0 HT 0-0	Mosul FC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	12	8	3	1	19	9	27
2	Al Naft SC	12	7	4	1	14	5	25
3	Al Zawra'a	12	6	3	3	17	9	21
4	Al Shorta SC	12	5	6	1	13	6	21
5	Newroz SC	12	5	5	2	14	6	20
6	Al Jolan SC	12	5	5	2	16	12	20
7	Erbil SC	12	5	4	3	15	8	19
8	Al Talaba	12	4	6	2	14	13	18
9	Al Minaa	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
10	Duhok	12	3	6	3	19	16	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	12	3	6	3	7	8	15
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	12	2	7	3	14	13	13
13	Diyala FC	12	3	4	5	15	18	13
14	Zakho	12	3	4	5	9	15	13
15	Al Gharraf	12	3	4	5	8	14	13
16	Mosul FC	12	3	3	6	13	20	12
17	Al Karkh	12	2	3	7	15	21	9
18	Naft Maysan	12	1	6	5	7	15	9
19	Al Kahrabaa	12	1	5	6	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	12	1	4	7	11	24	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mosul FC	Duhok
Al Jolan SC	2-4 L	0-2 L
Al Karkh	1-1 D	2-3 L
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	0-3 L	2-1 W
Al Naft SC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Newroz SC	0-3 L	0-0 D
Al Zawra'a	2-2 D	3-0 W
Karbalaa FC	3-0 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Duhok (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mosul FC

WLDLLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-4	3	3	L
23/10	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
18/10	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	1	9	W
07/10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
18/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
13/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
09/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
03/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
30/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
26/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W

Duhok

DDWDLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
23/10	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	5-2	10	3	W
17/10	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	15	4	L
08/10	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	6	7	W
18/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
13/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
08/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	5	8	W
30/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
26/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mosul FC vs Duhok?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Duhok win (36%). Probabilities: Mosul FC 35%, draw 29%, Duhok 36%.

How many goals are expected in Mosul FC vs Duhok?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Mosul FC 1.32 · Duhok 1.36), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mosul FC vs Duhok?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.