Football · Iraq Stars League · 29/10, 14:45

Prediction: Al Naft SC vs Al Kahrabaa

Team pages: Al Naft SC · Al Kahrabaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.95Total

Al Naft SC1.28

Al Kahrabaa0.67

1X2

51% 30% 19%

Al Naft SC Draw Al Kahrabaa

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Naft SC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWLWWWWD

Al Kahrabaa 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDDDLWLDLL

Head-to-head

Al Naft SC 3–3–0 Al Kahrabaa (6 last)

Al Kahrabaa1-2Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC1-0Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa1-1Al Naft SC
Al Kahrabaa0-0Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC3-2Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa2-2Al Naft SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Naft SC 1568 · Al Kahrabaa 1442

	Al Naft SC	Draw	Al Kahrabaa
Our model	50%	32%	18%
Market	52%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 1.95 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Naft SC (rating 1568 vs 1442).
H2H favours Al Naft SC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Naft SC	Al Kahrabaa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.6	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:00 +4’	1.73	3.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Naft SC 3–3–0 Al Kahrabaa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	1-2 HT 0-0	Al Naft SC
19/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Naft SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Kahrabaa
19/06/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	1-1 HT 1-0	Al Naft SC
02/01/25 Iraq League	Al Kahrabaa	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Naft SC
01/04/24 Iraq League	Al Naft SC	3-2 HT 1-1	Al Kahrabaa
11/11/23 Iraq League	Al Kahrabaa	2-2 HT 1-2	Al Naft SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	11	7	3	1	18	9	24
2	Al Naft SC	11	6	4	1	13	5	22
3	Al Shorta SC	11	5	5	1	12	5	20
4	Newroz SC	11	5	4	2	13	5	19
5	Erbil SC	11	5	3	3	14	7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	5	3	3	15	9	18
7	Al Jolan SC	11	4	5	2	12	10	17
8	Al Talaba	11	4	5	2	12	11	17
9	Duhok	11	3	6	2	19	15	15
10	Al Minaa	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	11	3	5	3	6	7	14
12	Diyala FC	11	3	4	4	15	16	13
13	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	2	6	3	14	13	12
14	Mosul FC	11	3	3	5	11	16	12
15	Zakho	11	3	3	5	9	15	12
16	Al Gharraf	11	2	4	5	6	13	10
17	Al Karkh	11	2	3	6	14	19	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	1	5	5	7	13	8
19	Naft Maysan	11	1	5	5	7	15	8
20	Karbalaa FC	11	1	3	7	9	22	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Naft SC	Al Kahrabaa
Al Gharraf	0-0 D	0-0 D
Karbalaa FC	2-1 W	0-0 D
Al Karma	0-3 L	1-1 D
Al Minaa	3-0 W	2-1 W
Al Talaba	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Naft SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Naft SC

DDDWLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
17/10	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
09/10	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
18/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
14/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
09/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
05/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	3-0	3-0	0	5	W
31/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
26/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D

Al Kahrabaa

DDDDLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
16/10	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	0	6	L
10/10	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
19/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
13/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
07/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
03/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
29/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
20/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Naft SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Naft SC win (51%). Probabilities: Al Naft SC 51%, draw 30%, Al Kahrabaa 19%.

How many goals are expected in Al Naft SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

The model expects 1.95 goals (Al Naft SC 1.28 · Al Kahrabaa 0.67), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Naft SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.