Prediction: El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC
Team pages: El Nacional · Gualaceo SC
- Gualaceo SC3-0El Nacional
- El Nacional0-0Gualaceo SC
- Gualaceo SC2-0El Nacional
- El Nacional4-2Gualaceo SC
- Gualaceo SC3-4El Nacional
- El Nacional4-2Gualaceo SC
| El Nacional | Draw | Gualaceo SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Market | 29% | 28% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gualaceo SC (rating 1437 vs 1553).
- H2H favours El Nacional: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| El Nacional | Gualaceo SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1.4 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/13/75% | 25/75/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.3 | 2.6 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · El Nacional 3–1–2 Gualaceo SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Gualaceo SC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | El Nacional |
| 24/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gualaceo SC |
| 02/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Gualaceo SC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | El Nacional |
| 12/11/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | El Nacional | 4-2 HT 0-1 | Gualaceo SC |
| 05/06/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Gualaceo SC | 3-4 HT 1-1 | El Nacional |
| 07/10/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Gualaceo SC |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gualaceo SC | 31 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 33 | 20 | 42 |
| 2 | CD Vargas Torres | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 31 | 23 | 42 |
| 3 | LDU Portoviejo | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 42 |
| 4 | Cumbaya | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 43 | 32 | 40 |
| 5 | El Nacional | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 50 | 15 |
| 6 | 22 de Julio | 31 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 66 | 11 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | El Nacional | Gualaceo SC |
|---|---|---|
| Cumbaya | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| CD Vargas Torres | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| 22 de Julio | 5-2 W | 4-2 W |
| LDU Portoviejo | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Gualaceo SC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
El Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 17/10 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 07/10 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 03/10 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 18/09 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/08 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Gualaceo SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/10 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 27/09 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 10/09 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 20/08 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Gualaceo SC win (43%). Probabilities: El Nacional 29%, draw 29%, Gualaceo SC 43%.
How many goals are expected in El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC?
The model expects 2.51 goals (El Nacional 1.11 · Gualaceo SC 1.4), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.