Prediction: Cumbaya vs El Nacional
Team pages: Cumbaya · El Nacional
- El Nacional0-3Cumbaya
- El Nacional0-1Cumbaya
- Cumbaya2-1El Nacional
- El Nacional2-1Cumbaya
- Cumbaya1-0El Nacional
- El Nacional2-2Cumbaya
| Cumbaya | Draw | El Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 21% | 14% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cumbaya (rating 1531 vs 1425).
- H2H favours Cumbaya: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cumbaya | El Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 14/71/14% | 13/13/75% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 3.8 | 1.7 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.4 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cumbaya 4–1–1 El Nacional
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 0-3 | Cumbaya |
| 08/07/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cumbaya |
| 24/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Cumbaya | 2-1 HT 2-0 | El Nacional |
| 15/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | El Nacional | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Cumbaya |
| 31/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Cumbaya | 1-0 HT 0-0 | El Nacional |
| 26/08/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | El Nacional | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Cumbaya |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gualaceo SC | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 32 | 19 | 41 |
| 2 | CD Vargas Torres | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 30 | 22 | 41 |
| 3 | LDU Portoviejo | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 27 | 28 | 41 |
| 4 | Cumbaya | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 41 | 31 | 37 |
| 5 | El Nacional | 30 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 48 | 15 |
| 6 | 22 de Julio | 30 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 65 | 10 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cumbaya | El Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| 22 de Julio | 7-1 W | 5-2 W |
| Gualaceo SC | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| CD Vargas Torres | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| LDU Portoviejo | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Cumbaya (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cumbaya
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 7-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/10 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 26/09 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/09 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 7-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/09 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 04/09 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/08 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 20/08 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 13/08 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
El Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 07/10 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 03/10 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 18/09 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/08 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/08 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cumbaya vs El Nacional?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cumbaya win (64%). Probabilities: Cumbaya 64%, draw 21%, El Nacional 14%.
How many goals are expected in Cumbaya vs El Nacional?
The model expects 3.09 goals (Cumbaya 2.15 · El Nacional 0.94), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cumbaya vs El Nacional?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.