Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 28/10, 20:00

Prediction: Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Vinotinto Ecuador

Team pages: Atletico FC Guayaquil · Vinotinto Ecuador

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Atletico FC Guayaquil1.03

Vinotinto Ecuador1.04

1X2

34% 31% 35%

Atletico FC Guayaquil Draw Vinotinto Ecuador

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico FC Guayaquil 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWWWD

Vinotinto Ecuador 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDDLW

Head-to-head

Atletico FC Guayaquil 1–2 Vinotinto Ecuador (3 last)

Vinotinto Ecuador1-0Atletico FC Guayaquil
Vinotinto Ecuador3-0Atletico FC Guayaquil
Atletico FC Guayaquil1-0Vinotinto Ecuador

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1558 · Vinotinto Ecuador 1557

	Atletico FC Guayaquil	Draw	Vinotinto Ecuador
Our model	33%	33%	34%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vinotinto Ecuador: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico FC Guayaquil	Vinotinto Ecuador
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.9	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.6	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.00

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
01:54 +9’	2.60	3.00	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1–0–2 Vinotinto Ecuador

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/08/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Vinotinto Ecuador	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico FC Guayaquil
31/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Vinotinto Ecuador	3-0 HT 2-0	Atletico FC Guayaquil
26/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Atletico FC Guayaquil	1-0 HT 0-0	Vinotinto Ecuador

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · Serie B 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico FC Guayaquil	31	14	14	3	39	21	56
2	Vinotinto Ecuador	31	14	9	8	39	23	51
3	Independiente Juniors	31	13	11	7	36	26	50
4	Club 9 de Octubre	31	12	13	6	35	24	49
5	CD Cuenca Jrs	31	10	10	11	25	36	40
6	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	31	8	13	10	32	37	37

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico FC Guayaquil	Vinotinto Ecuador
CD Cuenca Jrs	2-2 D	1-1 D
Independiente Juniors	1-0 W	2-0 W
San Antonio FC Cotacachi	2-1 W	0-0 D
Club 9 de Octubre	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico FC Guayaquil (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico FC Guayaquil

WLDWDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	2-2	5	9	D
15/10	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
08/10	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
03/10	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
24/09	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/09	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-1	0	8	D
10/09	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
04/09	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	2-2	4	13	D
27/08	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
20/08	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	3-0	3-0	1	3	W

Vinotinto Ecuador

DWWWWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	2-0	5	9	W
17/10	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
07/10	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	1-1	11	5	D
02/10	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
24/09	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	3-2	1	8	W
17/09	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
11/09	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-0	2-0	5	7	W
03/09	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	4-2	10	6	W
27/08	Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
22/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Vinotinto Ecuador?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vinotinto Ecuador win (35%). Probabilities: Atletico FC Guayaquil 34%, draw 31%, Vinotinto Ecuador 35%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Vinotinto Ecuador?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Atletico FC Guayaquil 1.03 · Vinotinto Ecuador 1.04), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Vinotinto Ecuador?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.