Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: VVSB vs Zwaluwen

Team pages: VVSB · Zwaluwen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

VVSB1.57

Zwaluwen1.69

1X2

36% 23% 41%

VVSB Draw Zwaluwen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

VVSB 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWLLLD

Zwaluwen 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWWWWL

Head-to-head

VVSB 0–1–1 Zwaluwen (2 last)

Zwaluwen3-1VVSB
VVSB1-1Zwaluwen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VVSB 1463 · Zwaluwen 1527

	VVSB	Draw	Zwaluwen
Our model	35%	25%	40%
Market	37%	22%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zwaluwen (rating 1463 vs 1527).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VVSB	Zwaluwen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X4.10

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:40 +9’	2.45	4.10	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VVSB 0–1–1 Zwaluwen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Zwaluwen	3-1 HT 0-1	VVSB
06/09/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VVSB	1-1 HT 0-1	Zwaluwen

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Noordwijk	10	8	1	1	22	2	25
2	FC Lisse	10	8	1	1	22	8	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	7	2	1	21	7	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	6	2	2	25	12	20
5	RKSV UDI '19	10	6	2	2	20	9	20
6	VV Dongen	10	5	1	4	24	21	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	5	1	4	11	14	16
8	SV Poortugaal	10	5	0	5	12	14	15
9	VV Goes	10	4	2	4	19	25	14
10	VV Gemert	10	3	4	3	14	17	13
11	Blauw Geel '38	10	3	3	4	14	14	12
12	Roosendaal	10	3	1	6	18	23	10
13	TOGB	10	2	3	5	16	24	9
14	Groene Ster	10	2	3	5	14	24	9
15	VV UNA	10	1	5	4	12	16	8
16	VVSB	10	2	2	6	13	21	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	2	0	8	8	22	6
18	EVV Echt	10	0	3	7	11	23	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VVSB	Zwaluwen
Excelsior Maassluis	2-3 L	0-2 L
Roosendaal	1-3 L	4-2 W
Achilles Veen	2-1 W	1-0 W
Noordwijk	0-2 L	2-1 W
FC Lisse	1-2 L	1-0 W
Groene Ster	3-3 D	0-1 L
RKSV UDI '19	0-2 L	1-0 W
SV Poortugaal	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Zwaluwen (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VVSB

WLDLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
10/10	Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
03/10	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
26/09	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
19/09	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
05/09	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
30/08	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	3-3	3	2	D
22/08	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Zwaluwen

LDLWLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
10/10	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
03/10	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/09	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
05/09	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VVSB vs Zwaluwen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Zwaluwen win (41%). Probabilities: VVSB 36%, draw 23%, Zwaluwen 41%.

How many goals are expected in VVSB vs Zwaluwen?

The model expects 3.25 goals (VVSB 1.57 · Zwaluwen 1.69), with a 58% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in VVSB vs Zwaluwen?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.