Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 24/10, 18:00

Prediction: FC Lisse vs VV Dongen

Team pages: FC Lisse

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

FC Lisse2.35

VV Dongen1.46

1X2

57% 20% 23%

FC Lisse Draw VV Dongen

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Lisse 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLDWWW

VV Dongen 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLDWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Lisse 1587 · VV Dongen 1492

	FC Lisse	Draw	VV Dongen
Our model	57%	21%	22%
Market	57%	20%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lisse (rating 1587 vs 1492).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lisse	VV Dongen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.8	2.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7.5	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.50

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:28 +4’	1.57	4.50	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Noordwijk	10	8	1	1	22	2	25
2	FC Lisse	10	8	1	1	22	8	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	7	2	1	21	7	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	6	2	2	25	12	20
5	RKSV UDI '19	10	6	2	2	20	9	20
6	VV Dongen	10	5	1	4	24	21	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	5	1	4	11	14	16
8	SV Poortugaal	10	5	0	5	12	14	15
9	VV Goes	10	4	2	4	19	25	14
10	VV Gemert	10	3	4	3	14	17	13
11	Blauw Geel '38	10	3	3	4	14	14	12
12	Roosendaal	10	3	1	6	18	23	10
13	TOGB	10	2	3	5	16	24	9
14	Groene Ster	10	2	3	5	14	24	9
15	VV UNA	10	1	5	4	12	16	8
16	VVSB	10	2	2	6	13	21	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	2	0	8	8	22	6
18	EVV Echt	10	0	3	7	11	23	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lisse	VV Dongen
VV Goes	6-2 W	2-3 L
Rijnvogels	2-0 W	2-5 L
VV Gemert	2-0 W	3-2 W
EVV Echt	1-1 D	3-2 W
Zwaluwen	0-1 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lisse (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Lisse

WWWWWLDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	6-2	8	2	W
10/10	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
26/09	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
05/09	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	4-1	–	–	W

VV Dongen

WWWLLLDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/10	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-4	6	4	L
03/10	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	4-0	3	4	W
27/09	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-3	1-3	4	0	L
13/09	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
05/09	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	2-5	6	1	L
30/08	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
23/08	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Lisse vs VV Dongen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Lisse win (57%). Probabilities: FC Lisse 57%, draw 20%, VV Dongen 23%.

How many goals are expected in FC Lisse vs VV Dongen?

The model expects 3.81 goals (FC Lisse 2.35 · VV Dongen 1.46), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Lisse vs VV Dongen?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.