Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 24/10, 14:30

Prediction: Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31

Team pages: Harkemase Boys · Excelsior '31

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Harkemase Boys1.77

Excelsior '311.4

1X2

46% 23% 30%

Harkemase Boys Draw Excelsior '31

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Harkemase Boys 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWDLWW

Excelsior '31 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Harkemase Boys 2–2 Excelsior '31 (4 last)

Harkemase Boys0-1Excelsior '31
Excelsior '310-1Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys1-2Excelsior '31
Harkemase Boys2-0Excelsior '31

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harkemase Boys 1553 · Excelsior '31 1591

	Harkemase Boys	Draw	Excelsior '31
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	47%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harkemase Boys	Excelsior '31
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	2.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 8	1.5 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0.3	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.10

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:44 +16’	1.91	4.10	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Harkemase Boys 2–0–2 Excelsior '31

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/09/26 Netherlands Cup	Harkemase Boys	0-1 HT 0-0	Excelsior '31
25/04/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Excelsior '31	0-1 HT 0-1	Harkemase Boys
22/11/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Harkemase Boys	1-2 HT 1-0	Excelsior '31
07/05/22 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Harkemase Boys	2-0 HT 1-0	Excelsior '31

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ACV Assen	10	7	2	1	26	10	23
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	7	2	1	18	10	23
3	Harkemase Boys	10	7	2	1	20	14	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	7	1	2	28	9	22
5	Genemuiden	10	7	0	3	22	15	21
6	TEC	10	6	2	2	29	17	20
7	Sportlust '46	10	5	4	1	18	14	19
8	Purmersteijn	10	5	3	2	19	12	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	4	2	4	22	21	14
10	Hoogeveen	10	4	1	5	24	23	13
11	ADO '20	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
12	USV Hercules	10	3	1	6	12	22	10
13	Staphorst	10	2	3	5	16	21	9
14	VV Eemdijk	9	2	1	6	13	28	7
15	DVS'33 Ermelo	10	1	3	6	13	19	6
16	DOVO	10	1	2	7	12	25	5
17	HVV Hollandia	9	1	1	7	16	27	4
18	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	10	0	1	9	9	28	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harkemase Boys	Excelsior '31
DOVO	3-2 W	3-0 W
Hoogeveen	2-1 W	2-0 W
Purmersteijn	2-4 L	1-1 D
VV Scherpenzeel	0-0 D	1-3 L
SV Zwaluwen Wierden	2-1 W	4-0 W
Staphorst	1-1 D	4-2 W
VV Eemdijk	2-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Excelsior '31 (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harkemase Boys

WWWWDWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-2	3-2	–	–	W
10/10	Hoogeveen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-1	7	2	W
03/10	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
26/09	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/09	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-1	11	0	D
05/09	VV Eemdijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	5-3	6	3	W
22/08	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	HVV Hollandia Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Excelsior '31

WWWLDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
10/10	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
03/10	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/09	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
19/09	Hoogeveen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/09	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
29/08	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
22/08	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-2	4-2	2	1	W
15/08	VV Eemdijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Harkemase Boys win (46%). Probabilities: Harkemase Boys 46%, draw 23%, Excelsior '31 30%.

How many goals are expected in Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Harkemase Boys 1.77 · Excelsior '31 1.4), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Harkemase Boys vs Excelsior '31?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.