Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 24/10, 14:30

Prediction: Achilles Veen vs Rijnvogels

Team pages: Rijnvogels

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Achilles Veen1.51

Rijnvogels2.23

1X2

25% 21% 53%

Achilles Veen Draw Rijnvogels

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Achilles Veen 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLWL

Rijnvogels 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Achilles Veen 1420 · Rijnvogels 1546

	Achilles Veen	Draw	Rijnvogels
Our model	25%	22%	53%
Market	26%	21%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rijnvogels (rating 1420 vs 1546).
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Achilles Veen	Rijnvogels
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.2	2.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.5	2 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.5 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.33

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:53 +6’	3.50	4.33	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Noordwijk	10	8	1	1	22	2	25
2	FC Lisse	10	8	1	1	22	8	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	7	2	1	21	7	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	6	2	2	25	12	20
5	RKSV UDI '19	10	6	2	2	20	9	20
6	VV Dongen	10	5	1	4	24	21	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	5	1	4	11	14	16
8	SV Poortugaal	10	5	0	5	12	14	15
9	VV Goes	10	4	2	4	19	25	14
10	VV Gemert	10	3	4	3	14	17	13
11	Blauw Geel '38	10	3	3	4	14	14	12
12	Roosendaal	10	3	1	6	18	23	10
13	TOGB	10	2	3	5	16	24	9
14	Groene Ster	10	2	3	5	14	24	9
15	VV UNA	10	1	5	4	12	16	8
16	VVSB	10	2	2	6	13	21	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	2	0	8	8	22	6
18	EVV Echt	10	0	3	7	11	23	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Achilles Veen	Rijnvogels
VV Gemert	0-2 L	2-2 D
Blauw Geel '38	3-2 W	0-0 D
Noordwijk	0-4 L	0-3 L
FC Lisse	1-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Rijnvogels (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Achilles Veen

LLWLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
10/10	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/09	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
05/09	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	0-3	11	0	L
29/08	Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-2	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
15/08	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	1-4	–	–	L

Rijnvogels

DDWWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
10/10	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
03/10	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	5-1	–	–	W
27/09	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/09	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
05/09	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	5-2	6	1	W
30/08	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	4-1	10	1	W
23/08	Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Achilles Veen vs Rijnvogels?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rijnvogels win (53%). Probabilities: Achilles Veen 25%, draw 21%, Rijnvogels 53%.

How many goals are expected in Achilles Veen vs Rijnvogels?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Achilles Veen 1.51 · Rijnvogels 2.23), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Achilles Veen vs Rijnvogels?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.