Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 24/10, 14:30

Prediction: ACV Assen vs DOVO

Team pages: ACV Assen · DOVO

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

ACV Assen2.51

DOVO1.22

1X2

65% 19% 16%

ACV Assen Draw DOVO

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

ACV Assen 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWLDW

DOVO 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

ACV Assen 1–1 DOVO (2 last)

ACV Assen1-3DOVO
ACV Assen3-0DOVO

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ACV Assen 1592 · DOVO 1437

	ACV Assen	Draw	DOVO
Our model	65%	19%	16%
Market	65%	19%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ACV Assen (rating 1592 vs 1437).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ACV Assen	DOVO
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1	1.2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7.5	– / –
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	– / –

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.75

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:49 +11’	1.38	4.75	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ACV Assen 1–0–1 DOVO

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/08/22 Netherlands Derde Divisie	ACV Assen	1-3 HT 0-0	DOVO
05/04/22 Netherlands Derde Divisie	ACV Assen	3-0 HT 2-0	DOVO

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ACV Assen	10	7	2	1	26	10	23
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	7	2	1	18	10	23
3	Harkemase Boys	10	7	2	1	20	14	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	7	1	2	28	9	22
5	Genemuiden	10	7	0	3	22	15	21
6	TEC	10	6	2	2	29	17	20
7	Sportlust '46	10	5	4	1	18	14	19
8	Purmersteijn	10	5	3	2	19	12	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	4	2	4	22	21	14
10	Hoogeveen	10	4	1	5	24	23	13
11	ADO '20	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
12	USV Hercules	10	3	1	6	12	22	10
13	Staphorst	10	2	3	5	16	21	9
14	VV Eemdijk	9	2	1	6	13	28	7
15	DVS'33 Ermelo	10	1	3	6	13	19	6
16	DOVO	10	1	2	7	12	25	5
17	HVV Hollandia	9	1	1	7	16	27	4
18	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	10	0	1	9	9	28	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ACV Assen	DOVO
Hoogeveen	4-1 W	1-4 L
Purmersteijn	1-1 D	2-1 W
VV Scherpenzeel	2-4 L	2-3 L
SV Zwaluwen Wierden	4-0 W	1-1 D
Staphorst	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ACV Assen (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ACV Assen

WWDWWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Hoogeveen Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	4-1	2	2	W
10/10	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-3	2-4	–	–	L
26/09	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/09	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	3-2	–	–	W
12/09	VV Eemdijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	5-1	11	3	W
05/09	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	9	5	D
22/08	HVV Hollandia Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	8	2	W

DOVO

DDLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-2	2-3	–	–	L
10/10	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
03/10	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
26/09	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
19/09	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Hoogeveen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
05/09	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
22/08	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ACV Assen vs DOVO?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ACV Assen win (65%). Probabilities: ACV Assen 65%, draw 19%, DOVO 16%.

How many goals are expected in ACV Assen vs DOVO?

The model expects 3.72 goals (ACV Assen 2.51 · DOVO 1.22), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ACV Assen vs DOVO?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.