Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 25/10, 14:30

Prediction: Groene Ster vs VV UNA

Team pages: Groene Ster · VV UNA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Groene Ster1.75

VV UNA1.69

1X2

40% 23% 37%

Groene Ster Draw VV UNA

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Groene Ster 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDWDLLWL

VV UNA 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDWDLLDDLL

Head-to-head

Groene Ster 1–3 VV UNA (4 last)

Groene Ster0-4VV UNA
VV UNA2-0Groene Ster
Groene Ster3-1VV UNA
VV UNA1-0Groene Ster

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Groene Ster 1437 · VV UNA 1472

	Groene Ster	Draw	VV UNA
Our model	39%	24%	37%
Market	40%	22%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours VV UNA: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Groene Ster	VV UNA
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.4	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.6	1.2 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.00

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.40 ★
X	4.10 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
2	2.70 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.47

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:55 +23’	2.00	4.10	2.70
05:09 +3’	2.25▲	4.00▼	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:42 +29’	2.37	3.40	2.45
12:33 +73’	2.40▲	3.45▲	2.47▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Groene Ster 1–0–3 VV UNA

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Groene Ster	0-4 HT 0-1	VV UNA
05/10/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV UNA	2-0 HT 2-0	Groene Ster
24/03/24 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Groene Ster	3-1 HT 2-0	VV UNA
15/10/23 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV UNA	1-0 HT 1-0	Groene Ster

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Noordwijk	11	9	1	1	25	4	28
2	FC Lisse	11	9	1	1	26	8	28
3	Excelsior Maassluis	11	8	2	1	22	7	26
4	Rijnvogels	11	7	2	2	29	13	23
5	RKSV UDI '19	11	6	2	3	22	12	20
6	Zwaluwen	11	6	1	4	15	16	19
7	SV Poortugaal	11	6	0	5	15	16	18
8	VV Dongen	11	5	1	5	24	25	16
9	VV Goes	11	4	2	5	21	28	14
10	VV Gemert	10	3	4	3	14	17	13
11	Blauw Geel '38	11	3	3	5	15	17	12
12	TOGB	11	3	3	5	19	25	12
13	Roosendaal	10	3	1	6	18	23	10
14	Groene Ster	10	2	3	5	14	24	9
15	VV UNA	10	1	5	4	12	16	8
16	VVSB	11	2	2	7	15	25	8
17	Achilles Veen	11	2	0	9	9	26	6
18	EVV Echt	11	0	3	8	11	24	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Groene Ster	VV UNA
VV Dongen	0-3 L	2-2 D
VV Goes	2-1 W	1-2 L
Rijnvogels	1-5 L	1-4 L
VV Gemert	1-2 L	1-1 D
EVV Echt	1-1 D	4-1 W
Zwaluwen	1-0 W	1-1 D
TOGB	3-3 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: VV UNA (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Groene Ster

LLDDWDLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
11/10	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
03/10	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-5	–	–	L
27/09	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
19/09	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
12/09	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
05/09	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	3-3	–	–	D
30/08	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-3	4	2	D
22/08	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
16/08	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-3	–	–	L

VV UNA

DDWDLLDDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
10/10	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
04/10	Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	0	2	D
27/09	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-2	4	0	L
13/09	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
06/09	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
30/08	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-1	4-1	3	4	W
22/08	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Groene Ster vs VV UNA?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Groene Ster win (40%). Probabilities: Groene Ster 40%, draw 23%, VV UNA 37%.

How many goals are expected in Groene Ster vs VV UNA?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Groene Ster 1.75 · VV UNA 1.69), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Groene Ster vs VV UNA?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.