Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 02/11, 20:45

Prediction: Aveley vs St Albans

Team pages: Aveley · St Albans

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Aveley1.55

St Albans1.81

1X2

32% 24% 43%

Aveley Draw St Albans

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Aveley 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLDWLW

St Albans 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWDWWW

Head-to-head

Aveley 3–1–2 St Albans (6 last)

St Albans0-1Aveley
Aveley0-2St Albans
Aveley1-1St Albans
St Albans3-0Aveley
Aveley6-3St Albans
Aveley2-1St Albans

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aveley 1485 · St Albans 1578

	Aveley	Draw	St Albans
Our model	32%	25%	43%
Market	32%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Albans (rating 1485 vs 1578).
H2H favours Aveley: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aveley	St Albans
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/0/75%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5.8	3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.3	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.70

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:35 +6’	2.75	3.70	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aveley 3–1–2 St Albans

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	St Albans	0-1	Aveley
04/10/25 England FA Trophy	Aveley	0-2	St Albans
06/09/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Aveley	1-1	St Albans
25/02/25 England National League South	St Albans	3-0 HT 2-0	Aveley
25/11/24 England National League South	Aveley	6-3 HT 2-3	St Albans
23/03/24 England National League South	Aveley	2-1 HT 0-0	St Albans

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	14	11	1	2	43	16	34
2	Welling	15	11	0	4	31	15	33
3	Eastbourne Borough	13	9	1	3	25	12	28
4	Lewes	14	8	3	3	22	16	27
5	Dartford	14	8	0	6	22	21	24
6	St Albans	11	7	2	2	24	15	23
7	Ramsgate	14	7	1	6	29	19	22
8	Carshalton Ath	16	7	1	8	23	32	22
9	Chatham Town	14	7	0	7	27	23	21
10	Wingate & Finchley	13	6	3	4	26	25	21
11	Dulwich	15	6	3	6	25	26	21
12	Burgess Hill Town	14	5	5	4	24	26	20
13	Leatherhead	12	5	3	4	25	20	18
14	AFC Whyteleafe	15	5	3	7	26	27	18
15	Cheshunt	15	4	6	5	17	23	18
16	Aveley	14	5	2	7	24	24	17
17	Maldon Tiptree FC	17	5	2	10	23	39	17
18	Cray Wanderers	10	4	3	3	23	15	15
19	Brentwood Town	13	5	0	8	23	25	15
20	Three Bridges	14	2	3	9	24	39	9
21	Stanway Rovers	14	2	1	11	14	39	7
22	Whitehawk	15	1	3	11	14	37	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aveley	St Albans
Burgess Hill Town	1-1 D	3-1 W
Cheshunt	1-2 L	1-1 D
Stanway Rovers	2-0 W	4-1 W
Lewes	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: St Albans (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aveley

LWLLLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-3	–	–	W
19/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
17/10	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-2	6	0	L
29/09	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
14/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	3-4	11	6	L
12/09	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L

St Albans

WLLWDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
27/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/10	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/09	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	3-3	6	3	D
12/09	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
22/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
15/08	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aveley vs St Albans?

According to our model, the most likely result is an St Albans win (43%). Probabilities: Aveley 32%, draw 24%, St Albans 43%.

How many goals are expected in Aveley vs St Albans?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Aveley 1.55 · St Albans 1.81), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Aveley vs St Albans?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.