Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 24/10, 22:00

Prediction: Monagas vs Academia Puerto Cabello

Team pages: Monagas · Academia Puerto Cabello

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Monagas1.17

Academia Puerto Cabello1.36

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Monagas Draw Academia Puerto Cabello

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Monagas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWWDWD

Academia Puerto Cabello 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLDWWD

Head-to-head

Monagas 1–3–2 Academia Puerto Cabello (6 last)

Academia Puerto Cabello3-3Monagas
Monagas1-1Academia Puerto Cabello
Academia Puerto Cabello0-0Monagas
Academia Puerto Cabello3-2Monagas
Monagas1-2Academia Puerto Cabello
Academia Puerto Cabello2-3Monagas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monagas 1531 · Academia Puerto Cabello 1548

	Monagas	Draw	Academia Puerto Cabello
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Academia Puerto Cabello: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monagas	Academia Puerto Cabello
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	2.9 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.88▲	Pinn 2.91
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.36 ★
2	2.35 → 2.25▼	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +3’	2.70	3.10	2.35
22:47 +4’	2.88▲	3.10	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:27 +47’	2.91	3.36	2.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monagas 1–3–2 Academia Puerto Cabello

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/10/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Puerto Cabello	3-3 HT 2-1	Monagas
25/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	1-1 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello
04/03/26 Copa Sudamericana	Academia Puerto Cabello	0-0 HT 0-0	Monagas
05/11/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Puerto Cabello	3-2 HT 2-2	Monagas
21/10/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	1-2 HT 1-0	Academia Puerto Cabello
07/08/25 Venezuela Cup	Academia Puerto Cabello	2-3 HT 1-2	Monagas

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura, Main Round, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Academia Puerto Cabello	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caracas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Tachira	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Monagas	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monagas	Academia Puerto Cabello
Estudiantes Merida	2-1 W	1-1 D
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	1-1 D	2-0 W
Academia Anzoategui FC	3-1 W	3-0 W
Trujillanos	1-3 L	1-0 W
Portuguesa	0-0 D	2-1 W
Deportivo Tachira	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Academia Puerto Cabello (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monagas

LDLWLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-3	2	0	D
12/10	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-1	5	10	W
19/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
17/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
13/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
06/09	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
03/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	1	6	W
30/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
23/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
16/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-3	–	–	L

Academia Puerto Cabello

WDWDDLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	2-1	3-3	2	0	D
11/10	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
20/09	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	15	6	W
16/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
13/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	5	0	L
08/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
04/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
01/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-0	4	7	W
22/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
16/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monagas vs Academia Puerto Cabello?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Academia Puerto Cabello win (40%). Probabilities: Monagas 31%, draw 29%, Academia Puerto Cabello 40%.

How many goals are expected in Monagas vs Academia Puerto Cabello?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Monagas 1.17 · Academia Puerto Cabello 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Monagas vs Academia Puerto Cabello?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.