Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 03/11, 22:30
Prediction: Monagas vs Caracas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.6Total
Monagas1.45
Caracas1.15
1X2
Monagas
Draw
Caracas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Monagas
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Caracas
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Monagas
4–2–0
Caracas
(6 last)
- Caracas2-3Monagas
- Caracas0-1Monagas
- Monagas1-1Caracas
- Monagas2-2Caracas
- Caracas1-4Monagas
- Caracas1-2Monagas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Monagas 1526 · Caracas 1500
| Monagas | Draw | Caracas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Monagas: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monagas | Caracas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.2 | 2.7 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monagas 4–2–0 Caracas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Monagas |
| 13/09/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Monagas |
| 23/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Caracas |
| 28/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Caracas |
| 18/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Monagas |
| 20/09/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Monagas |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura, Main Round, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Tachira | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Caracas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Monagas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monagas | Caracas |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Tachira | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Zamora | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Metropolitanos FC | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Academia Anzoategui FC | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Caracas (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monagas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 28/10 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 24/10 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 18/10 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 12/10 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 19/09 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 17/09 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 06/09 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 03/09 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
Caracas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 27/10 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 25/10 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/10 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
4-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/09 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monagas vs Caracas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Monagas win (43%). Probabilities: Monagas 43%, draw 28%, Caracas 29%.
How many goals are expected in Monagas vs Caracas?
The model expects 2.6 goals (Monagas 1.45 · Caracas 1.15), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Monagas vs Caracas?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.