Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 02/11, 00:30

Prediction: Carabobo vs Metropolitanos FC

Team pages: Carabobo · Metropolitanos FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Carabobo1.63

Metropolitanos FC1.03

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Carabobo Draw Metropolitanos FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Carabobo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWWDWDWW

Metropolitanos FC 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWDDD

Head-to-head

Carabobo 4–2–0 Metropolitanos FC (6 last)

Carabobo1-0Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC1-5Carabobo
Carabobo0-0Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC1-1Carabobo
Metropolitanos FC0-4Carabobo
Carabobo1-0Metropolitanos FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carabobo 1592 · Metropolitanos FC 1545

	Carabobo	Draw	Metropolitanos FC
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carabobo (rating 1592 vs 1545).
H2H favours Carabobo: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carabobo	Metropolitanos FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	2.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.81
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.90 → 3.80▼	Pinn 4.08 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:40 +16’	1.75	3.50	3.90
19:53 +24’	1.75	3.50	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:26 +52’	1.83	3.40	4.09
20:55 +84’	1.81▼	3.46▲	4.08▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carabobo 4–2–0 Metropolitanos FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	1-0 HT 0-0	Metropolitanos FC
31/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Metropolitanos FC	1-5 HT 0-0	Carabobo
04/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	0-0 HT 0-0	Metropolitanos FC
20/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Metropolitanos FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Carabobo
06/11/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Metropolitanos FC	0-4 HT 0-1	Carabobo
22/10/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	1-0 HT 0-0	Metropolitanos FC

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura, Main Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Carabobo	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Metropolitanos FC	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
3	Deportivo La Guaira	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
4	Portuguesa	2	0	1	1	1	3	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carabobo	Metropolitanos FC
Deportivo La Guaira	3-1 W	2-2 D
Portuguesa	3-1 W	0-0 D
Academia Anzoategui FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Estudiantes Merida	1-0 W	2-2 D
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	3-4 L	4-0 W
Zamora	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carabobo

DLWWWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
25/10	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-1	1	10	W
18/10	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
11/10	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
19/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	2	11	D
16/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
13/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	2-0	4	0	W
08/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
03/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-4	8	8	L
31/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Metropolitanos FC

DWWWWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
26/10	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
18/10	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-2	4	5	D
11/10	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	4-0	6	1	W
20/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-1	4	8	W
17/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
12/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
06/09	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
04/09	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	4-1	4	2	W
31/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-2	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carabobo vs Metropolitanos FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carabobo win (51%). Probabilities: Carabobo 51%, draw 26%, Metropolitanos FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Carabobo vs Metropolitanos FC?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Carabobo 1.63 · Metropolitanos FC 1.03), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Carabobo vs Metropolitanos FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.