Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 01/11, 00:30

Prediction: Caracas vs Monagas

Team pages: Caracas · Monagas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Caracas1.31

Monagas1.05

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Caracas Draw Monagas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Caracas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLDWWLW

Monagas 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDWDLL

Head-to-head

Caracas 0–3–3 Monagas (6 last)

Caracas0-1Monagas
Monagas1-1Caracas
Monagas2-2Caracas
Caracas1-4Monagas
Caracas1-2Monagas
Monagas1-1Caracas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caracas 1515 · Monagas 1499

	Caracas	Draw	Monagas
Our model	41%	30%	28%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Monagas: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caracas	Monagas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	6.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:41 +4’	2.10	3.30	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caracas 0–3–3 Monagas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Caracas	0-1 HT 0-1	Monagas
23/03/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	1-1 HT 1-0	Caracas
28/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	2-2 HT 1-0	Caracas
18/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Caracas	1-4 HT 0-1	Monagas
20/09/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Caracas	1-2 HT 1-0	Monagas
24/03/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	1-1 HT 1-1	Caracas

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura, Main Round, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Tachira	2	2	0	4	1	6
2	Academia Puerto Cabello	2	1	1	2	2	3
2	Caracas	2	1	1	2	2	3
4	Monagas	2	0	2	1	4	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caracas	Monagas
Academia Puerto Cabello	1-0 W	1-2 L
Deportivo Tachira	1-2 L	0-2 L
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	2-1 W	1-1 D
Zamora	4-1 W	1-0 W
Academia Anzoategui FC	1-1 D	3-1 W
Metropolitanos FC	0-3 L	0-1 L
Trujillanos	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Caracas (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caracas

DDWLLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
25/10	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
18/10	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	10	5	W
11/10	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	4-1	4-1	3	3	W
20/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	8	3	D
17/09	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
13/09	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
06/09	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/09	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
30/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Monagas

LWLWWDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	0-2	7	9	L
24/10	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
18/10	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-3	2	0	D
12/10	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-1	5	10	W
19/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
17/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
13/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
06/09	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
03/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	1	6	W
30/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caracas vs Monagas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caracas win (42%). Probabilities: Caracas 42%, draw 29%, Monagas 29%.

How many goals are expected in Caracas vs Monagas?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Caracas 1.31 · Monagas 1.05), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Caracas vs Monagas?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.