Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 24/10, 22:00
Prediction: Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC
Team pages: Deportivo La Guaira · Metropolitanos FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
Deportivo La Guaira1.61
Metropolitanos FC1.41
1X2
Deportivo La Guaira
Draw
Metropolitanos FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo La Guaira
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Metropolitanos FC
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo La Guaira
3–2–1
Metropolitanos FC
(6 last)
- Deportivo La Guaira1-2Metropolitanos FC
- Metropolitanos FC2-2Deportivo La Guaira
- Metropolitanos FC1-3Deportivo La Guaira
- Deportivo La Guaira4-1Metropolitanos FC
- Metropolitanos FC0-0Deportivo La Guaira
- Metropolitanos FC0-1Deportivo La Guaira
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo La Guaira 1474 · Metropolitanos FC 1591
| Deportivo La Guaira | Draw | Metropolitanos FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 39% | 30% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Metropolitanos FC (rating 1474 vs 1591).
- H2H favours Deportivo La Guaira: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo La Guaira | Metropolitanos FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.3 | 2.1 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo La Guaira 3–2–1 Metropolitanos FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Metropolitanos FC |
| 08/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Metropolitanos FC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 10/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Metropolitanos FC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 01/03/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Metropolitanos FC |
| 27/08/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Metropolitanos FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 20/07/24 Venezuela Cup | Metropolitanos FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo La Guaira |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura, Main Round, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carabobo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Portuguesa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo La Guaira | Metropolitanos FC |
|---|---|---|
| Trujillanos | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Portuguesa | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Deportivo Tachira | 2-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Carabobo | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Academia Anzoategui FC | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Estudiantes Merida | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 4-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Zamora | 6-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Metropolitanos FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo La Guaira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 20/09 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 16/09 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 04/09 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 31/08 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 0 | 12 | W |
| 17/08 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
4-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
Metropolitanos FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 11/10 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/09 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 17/09 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 04/09 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo La Guaira win (40%). Probabilities: Deportivo La Guaira 40%, draw 29%, Metropolitanos FC 31%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC?
The model expects 3.02 goals (Deportivo La Guaira 1.61 · Metropolitanos FC 1.41), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.