Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 04/11, 22:30

Prediction: Portuguesa vs Deportivo La Guaira

Team pages: Portuguesa · Deportivo La Guaira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Portuguesa1.09

Deportivo La Guaira1.14

1X2

34% 30% 36%

Portuguesa Draw Deportivo La Guaira

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Portuguesa 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWLDDLDD

Deportivo La Guaira 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDLDLD

Head-to-head

Portuguesa 0–4–2 Deportivo La Guaira (6 last)

Deportivo La Guaira2-2Portuguesa
Portuguesa0-0Deportivo La Guaira
Portuguesa0-2Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira1-1Portuguesa
Deportivo La Guaira0-0Portuguesa
Deportivo La Guaira3-1Portuguesa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portuguesa 1459 · Deportivo La Guaira 1472

	Portuguesa	Draw	Deportivo La Guaira
Our model	33%	32%	35%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo La Guaira: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portuguesa	Deportivo La Guaira
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.5	5.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +5’	2.63	3.10	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portuguesa 0–4–2 Deportivo La Guaira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/11/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	2-2 HT 1-0	Portuguesa
10/10/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo La Guaira
24/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Portuguesa	0-2 HT 0-2	Deportivo La Guaira
09/05/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	1-1 HT 0-1	Portuguesa
21/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	0-0 HT 0-0	Portuguesa
31/08/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	3-1 HT 0-1	Portuguesa

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura, Main Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Carabobo	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
2	Metropolitanos FC	3	0	3	0	3	3	3
3	Deportivo La Guaira	3	0	2	1	5	7	2
4	Portuguesa	3	0	2	1	3	5	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portuguesa	Deportivo La Guaira
Metropolitanos FC	0-0 D	2-2 D
Carabobo	1-3 L	1-3 L
UCV	0-0 D	0-2 L
Academia Puerto Cabello	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portuguesa

DDDWLDDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	2-2	12	6	D
29/10	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
25/10	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	1-3	4	10	L
18/10	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
10/10	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
20/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
16/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-1	1	10	W
13/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
06/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
03/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	7	D

Deportivo La Guaira

DWLLLDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
29/10	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
26/10	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
17/10	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-2	8	5	L
10/10	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
20/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-3	2-4	2	6	L
16/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
12/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
07/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
04/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	0	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portuguesa vs Deportivo La Guaira?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo La Guaira win (36%). Probabilities: Portuguesa 34%, draw 30%, Deportivo La Guaira 36%.

How many goals are expected in Portuguesa vs Deportivo La Guaira?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Portuguesa 1.09 · Deportivo La Guaira 1.14), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Portuguesa vs Deportivo La Guaira?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.