Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 04/11, 00:30

Prediction: Deportivo Tachira vs Academia Puerto Cabello

Team pages: Deportivo Tachira · Academia Puerto Cabello

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Deportivo Tachira1.56

Academia Puerto Cabello1.23

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Deportivo Tachira Draw Academia Puerto Cabello

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Tachira 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWDWWW

Academia Puerto Cabello 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDWWDWLL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Tachira 4–2–0 Academia Puerto Cabello (6 last)

Academia Puerto Cabello0-1Deportivo Tachira
Deportivo Tachira1-1Academia Puerto Cabello
Academia Puerto Cabello1-2Deportivo Tachira
Deportivo Tachira0-0Academia Puerto Cabello
Deportivo Tachira2-0Academia Puerto Cabello
Academia Puerto Cabello1-2Deportivo Tachira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Tachira 1594 · Academia Puerto Cabello 1498

	Deportivo Tachira	Draw	Academia Puerto Cabello
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Tachira (rating 1594 vs 1498).
H2H favours Deportivo Tachira: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Tachira	Academia Puerto Cabello
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.2	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	3.1 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:00 +8’	2.10	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Tachira 4–2–0 Academia Puerto Cabello

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/10/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Puerto Cabello	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Tachira
16/09/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	1-1 HT 0-1	Academia Puerto Cabello
05/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Puerto Cabello	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Tachira
22/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	0-0 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello
07/06/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	2-0 HT 2-0	Academia Puerto Cabello
03/05/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Puerto Cabello	1-2 HT 1-0	Deportivo Tachira

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura, Main Round, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Tachira	3	3	0	5	1	9
2	Caracas	3	1	2	4	5	3
3	Academia Puerto Cabello	3	1	2	2	3	3
4	Monagas	3	1	2	4	6	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Tachira	Academia Puerto Cabello
Monagas	2-0 W	2-1 W
Caracas	2-1 W	0-1 L
Carabobo	2-2 D	0-2 L
UCV	4-1 W	0-0 D
Deportivo La Guaira	4-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Tachira (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Tachira

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
28/10	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-0	6	9	W
25/10	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
18/10	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
11/10	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	4-1	5	5	W
20/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	3-1	4-2	3	6	W
16/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
12/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
06/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
02/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	5-2	2	4	W

Academia Puerto Cabello

DDLDWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
27/10	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
24/10	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
18/10	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	2-1	3-3	2	0	D
11/10	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
20/09	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	15	6	W
16/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
13/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	5	0	L
08/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
04/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Tachira vs Academia Puerto Cabello?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Tachira win (43%). Probabilities: Deportivo Tachira 43%, draw 28%, Academia Puerto Cabello 29%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Tachira vs Academia Puerto Cabello?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Deportivo Tachira 1.56 · Academia Puerto Cabello 1.23), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Tachira vs Academia Puerto Cabello?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.