Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 26/10, 03:00

Prediction: Portland Timbers II vs Ventura County FC

Team pages: Portland Timbers II · Ventura County FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Portland Timbers II1.75

Ventura County FC1.13

1X2

51% 24% 24%

Portland Timbers II Draw Ventura County FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Timbers II 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

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Ventura County FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Portland Timbers II 1–4–1 Ventura County FC (6 last)

Ventura County FC2-2Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II3-3Ventura County FC
Portland Timbers II0-0Ventura County FC
Ventura County FC2-2Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II2-3Ventura County FC
Ventura County FC2-3Portland Timbers II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Timbers II 1556 · Ventura County FC 1565

	Portland Timbers II	Draw	Ventura County FC
Our model	51%	26%	24%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Timbers II	Ventura County FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	2.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.9	2.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.6	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +29’	1.73	3.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers II 1–4–1 Ventura County FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/08/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Ventura County FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Portland Timbers II
10/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Portland Timbers II	3-3 HT 1-2	Ventura County FC
24/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Portland Timbers II	0-0 HT 0-0	Ventura County FC
10/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Ventura County FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Portland Timbers II
12/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Portland Timbers II	2-3 HT 2-3	Ventura County FC
24/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Ventura County FC	2-3 HT 1-1	Portland Timbers II

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Austin FC II	28	19	6	3	54	21	65
2	Portland Timbers II	28	14	10	4	37	29	57
3	Ventura County FC	28	14	7	7	58	36	53
4	Houston Dynamo II	28	14	6	8	53	33	52
5	Minnesota United FC II	28	12	6	10	43	39	45
6	Los Angeles FC II	28	11	9	8	50	48	45
7	St Louis City II	28	10	10	8	42	40	44
8	The Town	28	11	6	11	51	36	42
9	Tacoma Defiance	28	11	5	12	40	44	41
10	North Texas SC	28	8	10	10	42	41	40
11	Real Monarchs SLC	28	8	5	15	38	55	33
12	Vancouver Whitecaps II	28	6	5	17	39	62	27
13	Sporting Kansas City II	28	6	4	18	36	75	23
14	Colorado Rapids II	28	4	7	17	28	52	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Timbers II	Ventura County FC
Tacoma Defiance	1-1 D	3-0 W
North Texas SC	3-0 W	6-1 W
Los Angeles FC II	0-0 D	1-1 D
Minnesota United FC II	2-1 W	2-2 D
Real Monarchs SLC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Timbers II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-0	0	8	W
20/09	Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
14/09	St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
07/09	Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
30/08	Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-1	1	7	W
24/08	Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
16/08	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
08/08	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
01/08	Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-1	1	3	W
26/07	Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-0	3	9	W

Ventura County FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-2	2-2	1	2	D
20/09	Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
14/09	Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
10/09	The Town USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
06/09	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
29/08	Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-2	8	5	W
24/08	Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
15/08	Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
01/08	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	6-1	5	2	W
26/07	The Town USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	3-0	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Timbers II vs Ventura County FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Timbers II win (51%). Probabilities: Portland Timbers II 51%, draw 24%, Ventura County FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers II vs Ventura County FC?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Portland Timbers II 1.75 · Ventura County FC 1.13), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Timbers II vs Ventura County FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.