Football · Colombia Primera A · 08/11, 20:00
Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto
Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe · Deportivo Pasto
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
Independiente Santa Fe1.59
Deportivo Pasto0.81
1X2
Independiente Santa Fe
Draw
Deportivo Pasto
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Santa Fe
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Pasto
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Santa Fe
2–2–2
Deportivo Pasto
(6 last)
- Deportivo Pasto1-2Independiente Santa Fe
- Deportivo Pasto1-1Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe1-1Deportivo Pasto
- Independiente Santa Fe1-2Deportivo Pasto
- Deportivo Pasto1-0Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe2-1Deportivo Pasto
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe 1511 · Deportivo Pasto 1472
| Independiente Santa Fe | Draw | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Santa Fe | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.8 | 1.9 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.4 | 5.6 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe 2–2–2 Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 21/09/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 05/04/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 03/12/24 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 30/11/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 18/07/24 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 14 | 36 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 31 | 12 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 10 | 33 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 17 | 29 |
| 5 | Independiente Santa Fe | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 18 | 28 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 17 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 26 |
| 8 | Aguilas Doradas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 24 |
| 10 | Cucuta Deportivo | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 24 | 24 |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 20 | 23 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 20 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 23 | 20 |
| 14 | Alianza | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 18 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 17 |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 27 | 16 |
| 17 | Boyaca Chico | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 28 | 16 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 24 | 15 |
| 19 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 31 | 13 |
| 20 | Fortaleza CEIF | 17 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 25 | 12 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Santa Fe | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| Cucuta Deportivo | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Atletico Bucaramanga | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Jaguares de Cordoba | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Alianza | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportes Tolima | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Santa Fe (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/10 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 27/10 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/10 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 19/10 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 06/10 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 29/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 23/09 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 31/10 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 26/10 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 23/10 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/10 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/09 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 06/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 13 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe win (55%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe 55%, draw 27%, Deportivo Pasto 18%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model expects 2.4 goals (Independiente Santa Fe 1.59 · Deportivo Pasto 0.81), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.