Football · Colombia Primera A · 03/11, 21:30
Prediction: Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima
Team pages: Deportivo Pereira · Deportes Tolima
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.3Total
Deportivo Pereira0.67
Deportes Tolima1.63
1X2
Deportivo Pereira
Draw
Deportes Tolima
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Pereira
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Deportes Tolima
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Pereira
2–1–3
Deportes Tolima
(6 last)
- Deportes Tolima2-0Deportivo Pereira
- Deportes Tolima1-0Deportivo Pereira
- Deportivo Pereira0-0Deportes Tolima
- Deportivo Pereira1-0Deportes Tolima
- Deportes Tolima2-1Deportivo Pereira
- Deportes Tolima2-3Deportivo Pereira
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Pereira 1475 · Deportes Tolima 1471
| Deportivo Pereira | Draw | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 27% | 59% |
| Market | 15% | 24% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Deportes Tolima: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Pereira | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.6 | 2.5 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.2 / 0.6 | 5.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Pereira 2–1–3 Deportes Tolima
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira |
| 26/07/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira |
| 14/02/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pereira | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportes Tolima |
| 08/10/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pereira | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Deportes Tolima |
| 23/03/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira |
| 07/09/23 Colombia Primera A | Deportes Tolima | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 13 | 35 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 12 | 34 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 30 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 16 | 28 |
| 5 | Independiente Santa Fe | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 17 | 28 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 26 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 24 |
| 8 | Independiente Medellin | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 24 | 23 |
| 9 | Aguilas Doradas | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 22 |
| 10 | Cucuta Deportivo | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 21 |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 20 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 23 | 20 |
| 14 | Alianza | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 27 | 18 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 17 |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 27 | 16 |
| 17 | Boyaca Chico | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 16 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 13 |
| 19 | Fortaleza CEIF | 16 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 24 | 12 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 24 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Pereira | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Jaguares de Cordoba | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Once Caldas | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Boyaca Chico | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Independiente Santa Fe | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Aguilas Doradas | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Pereira (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Pereira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 20/10 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 14/10 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/10 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-3 | 0-4 | 0 | 10 | L |
| 29/09 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 11 | L |
| 26/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 18/09 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 13/09 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
Deportes Tolima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 9 | L |
| 18/10 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/10 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 09/10 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 03/10 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 28/09 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 11 | D |
| 21/09 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 17/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportes Tolima win (60%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pereira 15%, draw 25%, Deportes Tolima 60%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima?
The model expects 2.3 goals (Deportivo Pereira 0.67 · Deportes Tolima 1.63), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Tolima?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.