Football · Colombia Primera A · 12/11, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Pasto vs Junior

Team pages: Deportivo Pasto · Junior

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Deportivo Pasto0.82

Junior2.04

1X2

13% 22% 65%

Deportivo Pasto Draw Junior

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Pasto 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLWLWL

Junior 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDDDWDLW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Pasto 1–2–3 Junior (6 last)

Junior4-3Deportivo Pasto
Junior2-0Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto3-3Junior
Deportivo Pasto1-0Junior
Junior2-0Deportivo Pasto
Junior0-0Deportivo Pasto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Pasto 1474 · Junior 1520

	Deportivo Pasto	Draw	Junior
Our model	13%	22%	65%
Market	13%	23%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Junior (rating 1474 vs 1520).
H2H favours Junior: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Pasto	Junior
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

17.00

X4.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.98

2 (-1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 7.00▲	Bet365 7.00
X	3.40 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	1.83 → 1.40▼	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:43 +21’	4.00	3.40	1.83
23:48 +14’	7.00▲	4.00▲	1.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Pasto 1–2–3 Junior

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Colombia Primera A	Junior	4-3 HT 0-1	Deportivo Pasto
29/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Junior	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Pasto
13/04/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	3-3 HT 3-1	Junior
29/08/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	1-0 HT 0-0	Junior
09/02/24 Colombia Primera A	Junior	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Pasto
13/08/23 Colombia Primera A	Junior	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Pasto

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	18	12	3	3	37	17	39
2	America de Cali	18	10	6	2	31	12	36
3	Deportivo Cali	18	9	7	2	26	10	34
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	18	8	8	2	30	17	32
5	Independiente Santa Fe	18	9	4	5	28	18	31
6	Independiente Medellin	18	9	2	7	28	25	29
7	Millonarios	18	6	9	3	25	16	27
8	Once Caldas	18	7	6	5	22	18	27
9	Deportes Tolima	18	7	5	6	23	21	26
10	Aguilas Doradas	18	6	7	5	22	21	25
11	Cucuta Deportivo	18	7	3	8	19	26	24
12	Llaneros	18	7	2	9	21	24	23
13	Internacional de Bogota	18	4	8	6	22	25	20
14	Junior	18	4	7	7	25	27	19
15	Boyaca Chico	18	5	4	9	15	29	19
16	Alianza	18	5	3	10	18	31	18
17	Deportivo Pereira	18	3	8	7	16	26	17
18	Deportivo Pasto	18	4	3	11	13	29	15
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	18	3	4	11	17	35	13
20	Fortaleza CEIF	18	1	9	8	17	28	12

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Pasto	Junior
Atletico Bucaramanga	1-2 L	1-3 L
Atletico Nacional Medellin	0-3 L	1-3 L
Boyaca Chico	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Junior (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Pasto

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
04/11	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	9	7	W
31/10	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
26/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
23/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
20/10	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
04/10	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-3	4	1	L
20/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
15/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	8	W

Junior

WLLDDDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
01/11	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-3	1	3	L
28/10	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
24/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
19/10	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
14/10	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
11/10	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
05/10	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-3	1-3	7	4	L
01/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-3	5	10	L
27/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pasto vs Junior?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Junior win (65%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pasto 13%, draw 22%, Junior 65%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pasto vs Junior?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Deportivo Pasto 0.82 · Junior 2.04), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Junior?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.