Football · Colombia Primera A · 09/11, 00:10

Prediction: Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios

Team pages: Deportes Tolima · Millonarios

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Deportes Tolima1.28

Millonarios0.98

1X2

43% 30% 28%

Deportes Tolima Draw Millonarios

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Tolima 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDDDLLLW

Millonarios 3-7-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWDDDWDD

Head-to-head

Deportes Tolima 2–4 Millonarios (6 last)

Millonarios2-0Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima3-1Millonarios
Millonarios2-0Deportes Tolima
Millonarios1-0Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima2-0Millonarios
Millonarios1-0Deportes Tolima

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Tolima 1465 · Millonarios 1545

	Deportes Tolima	Draw	Millonarios
Our model	42%	31%	27%
Market	43%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Millonarios (rating 1465 vs 1545).
H2H favours Millonarios: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Tolima	Millonarios
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.9	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.2	5.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.20
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.43 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:40 +13’	2.15	3.25	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +21’	2.19	3.14	3.39
04:03 +20’	2.20▲	3.19▲	3.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Tolima 2–0–4 Millonarios

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportes Tolima
18/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	3-1 HT 2-1	Millonarios
02/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportes Tolima
03/08/24 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportes Tolima
04/02/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	2-0 HT 2-0	Millonarios
08/08/23 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportes Tolima

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	17	11	3	3	33	14	36
2	America de Cali	17	10	5	2	31	12	35
3	Deportivo Cali	17	9	6	2	26	10	33
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	17	7	8	2	26	17	29
5	Independiente Santa Fe	17	8	4	5	23	18	28
6	Millonarios	17	6	9	2	24	14	27
7	Independiente Medellin	17	8	2	7	25	25	26
8	Aguilas Doradas	17	6	7	4	22	20	25
9	Once Caldas	17	6	6	5	21	18	24
10	Cucuta Deportivo	17	7	3	7	19	24	24
11	Deportes Tolima	17	6	5	6	21	20	23
12	Internacional de Bogota	17	4	8	5	21	23	20
13	Llaneros	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
14	Alianza	17	5	3	9	17	29	18
15	Deportivo Pereira	17	3	8	6	13	22	17
16	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
17	Boyaca Chico	17	4	4	9	13	28	16
18	Deportivo Pasto	17	4	3	10	13	24	15
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	17	3	4	10	17	31	13
20	Fortaleza CEIF	17	1	9	7	17	25	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Tolima	Millonarios
Deportivo Pereira	3-1 W	1-1 D
Jaguares de Cordoba	2-3 L	4-1 W
Atletico Nacional Medellin	0-0 D	1-1 D
Boyaca Chico	0-0 D	3-0 W
Fortaleza CEIF	2-2 D	1-1 D
America de Cali	1-1 D	0-0 D
Once Caldas	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 5 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Millonarios (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Tolima

LLDDDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	3-1	3-1	2	5	W
26/10	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	10	9	L
18/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
11/10	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-3	8	6	L
09/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
03/10	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
28/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	0	11	D
21/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	9	7	D
17/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
12/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Millonarios

DDWWDDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/11	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
21/10	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
18/10	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	2-1	4-1	3	11	W
09/10	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
30/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
25/09	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
19/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
14/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
11/09	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	7	10	D
07/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Tolima win (43%). Probabilities: Deportes Tolima 43%, draw 30%, Millonarios 28%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Deportes Tolima 1.28 · Millonarios 0.98), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.